In the heart of the Indian Ocean, where crystal-clear waters cradle a necklace of islands, a political storm is brewing in the Maldives. The recent election of Mohamed Muizzu as the President of this tropical paradise has not only raised eyebrows but also sent geopolitical shockwaves, particularly in India. Let's embark on a detailed exploration of the unfolding events, dissecting the pro-China and 'India Out' tendencies that have become the focal point of this island nation's evolving political narrative.
"Dr Mohamed Muizzu in October 2023" by The President's Office, Maldives is licensed under CC BY 4.0.
Historical Anchors: Maumoon Abdul Gayoom to Mohamed Nasheed
To comprehend the current dynamics, we must navigate the historical currents. The Maldives, for an extended period, found itself tethered to India's regional sphere of influence, especially during the tenure of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom. His close ties with India established a diplomatic equilibrium that, however, began to unravel after his defeat in the 2008 elections. New leaders, in their pursuit of foreign policy shifts, started playing a crucial role in shaping the Maldives' geopolitical stance.
The Nasheed Era: Pro-India Waves
In 2008, the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) led by Mohamed Nasheed claimed victory. Nasheed's presidency was marked by a pro-India approach, emphasizing strong ties with the neighboring giant. This political alignment resonated with India's interests and created an era of diplomatic stability in the Indian Ocean archipelago.
The Yameen Interlude: China's Proxy in Power
However, the pendulum swung in 2013 with Abdulla Yameen's rise to power. Yameen, perceived as a proxy for China, marked a departure from the pro-India sentiments of his predecessor. During his tenure, Yameen nurtured pro-China leanings, setting the stage for a recalibration of the Maldives' foreign policy. He was later arrested under corruption charges.
Muizzu's Rise: A Prologue to Pro-China Symphony
The narrative takes a significant turn with the recent election of Mohamed Muizzu as the President. Hailing from the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), Muizzu's victory, defeating the incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, has sparked concerns in India. His political roots trace back to Yameen, and his anti-India stance, combined with sympathetic sentiments towards China, casts a shadow on the traditional India-Maldives partnership.
'India Out' Symphony: Muizzu's Political Gambit
Muizzu's startling call for India to "withdraw its military personnel'' within a week of his inauguration is met with skepticism. The fact-check reveals that there are no Indian troops in the Maldives; only humanitarian assets, including ALH helicopters and a Dornier aircraft, deployed for medical evacuation and air rescue operations. The 176 personnel associated with these assets are engaged primarily in missions for the benefit of the Maldivian population, not for Indian interests. Muizzu's claim is seen as a political gambit, perhaps to garner votes in the upcoming Majilis election in April, playing the 'India Out' card for political gain.
Symbolic Diplomacy: Rijiju's Presence and India's Concerns
The symbolic choice of Union Minister of Earth Sciences Kiren Rijiju over Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Muizzu's swearing-in ceremony is a nuanced diplomatic move. Rijiju's presence serves to sensitize the new Maldivian leader about India's experience with China and the serious concerns regarding China's overtures in the region. This diplomatic message is a departure from PM Modi's presence at Solih's swearing-in, indicating a downgrading of ties in response to Muizzu's perceived indifference to India's security concerns.
Kiren Rijiju, a prominent Indian minister hailing from Arunachal Pradesh — a region contested by China as part of southern Tibet and claimed by them — has garnered attention. Despite having no physical or political presence in the Indian state, China went as far as renaming 11 locations in April this year.
Muizzu's Political Affiliation: Pro-China Stance and Economic Entanglements
Understanding Muizzu's political roots is essential. His affiliation with Yameen's party, coupled with overseeing Chinese-funded infrastructure projects during his tenure as construction minister, underscores his pro-China stance. Muizzu's acknowledgment of strengthening ties with China during an online meeting with Chinese Communist Party officials highlights the economic dimension. However, economic complexities emerge as the Maldives faces considerable debt owed to China.
During his tenure as a minister under Yameen, Muizzu supervised numerous infrastructure projects in the Maldives, funded by China. Notably, he managed a $200 million bridge project connecting the capital to the country's main airport within this archipelago of less than one million people.
In a virtual meeting with Chinese Communist Party officials last year, Muizzu expressed that if his party returned to power, it would further strengthen the "robust ties between our two countries." However, Al Jazeera's Tony Cheng, reporting from Male, suggested that Muizzu might encounter challenges in fulfilling the promises he made during his election campaign.
Cheng highlighted India's significant involvement in the Maldives, deeply embedded in financial matters, trade, and infrastructure development. He expressed skepticism about Muizzu's ability to redirect this involvement, given his public expression of preference for China. Despite China's extensive role in financing various infrastructure projects, Cheng pointed out potential issues, such as the Maldives having a substantial debt owed to China, with some payments becoming due in the next couple of years.
India's Historic Support: A Reliable Neighbor
India's involvement in Maldivian affairs, historically marked by the deployment of soldiers to thwart a 1988 coup attempt, reflects a commitment to the well-being of its island neighbor. Financial assistance, infrastructure projects, and crucial aid during crises portray India as a reliable and generous neighbor.
India has offered substantial financial aid, ranging from $1.5 billion to $2 billion, to the Maldives, a nation with a population of around half a million. This support includes investments in diverse infrastructure and logistics projects, such as ports, roadways, bridges, airports, and even cricket stadiums, aimed at enhancing connectivity across the archipelago's numerous islands.
In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, India played a pivotal role by being the first to provide assistance to the Maldives. In 2020, a financial aid package of $250 million was extended to help the country mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic. Additional support followed in 2021 with $40 million and in 2022 with $100 million. Furthermore, India took the lead in supplying vaccines to the Maldives, delivering a total of 300,000 doses, of which 200,000 were provided as a grant.
Among the noteworthy projects backed by India is the Greater Male Connectivity Project, a massive initiative involving the construction of a 6.7 km bridge and causeway network connecting the capital, Male, with the nearby islands of Villingili, Gulhifalhu, and Thilafushi. This ambitious $500 million undertaking represents the largest infrastructure project in the Maldives, surpassing the 1.39 km-long Sinamalé Bridge, which was previously constructed by the Chinese.
'India Out' Campaign: Political Gambit or Geopolitical Shift?
Muizzu's 'India Out' campaign, propelled by hyperbolic rhetoric, has unseated a leader, Solih, known for his close ties with India. While this could be a political gambit, playing the anti-India card for electoral gains, it also raises questions about a potential geopolitical shift in the Maldives. The delicate balance between India and China in the Indian Ocean is now under scrutiny.
Climate Change and Humanitarian Imperatives: India's Role
Beyond the political posturing, the Maldives grapples with the dire consequences of climate change. Rising sea levels threaten its existence, potentially resulting in a refugee crisis. India, with its strategic position, is well-equipped to provide immediate humanitarian relief. The presence of helicopters, Dornier aircraft, and coastal patrol vessels anticipates a scenario where India acts as the first responder.
The China-Pakistan Axis and Rising Islamist Sentiments
The rise of Islamism and the inclination of radicals to align with the China-Pakistan axis against India cannot be overlooked. This problem, simmering during Yameen's reign, could escalate with the return of his proxy, Muizzu. As China's ambitions in the Indian Ocean intensify, Maldivian politicians might be drawn to the dynamics of great power competition, playing both sides to their advantage.
Conclusion: Navigating Choppy Waters
As the Maldives charts a new course with Muizzu at the helm, the geopolitical landscape in the Indian Ocean undergoes a transformation. The delicate dance between India and China for influence in this strategically positioned island nation unfolds against the backdrop of economic entanglements, political maneuvers, and rising climate-related challenges. The coming months will be crucial, determining whether the Maldives becomes a pawn in the great power competition or manages to maintain a delicate balance in its foreign policy. The geopolitical chessboard in the Indian Ocean is in flux, and the world watches with bated breath as the Maldives navigates these choppy waters.
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