A study conducted by the Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS) and released on November 5th revealed that the number of illegal immigrants, particularly Muslims from Bangladesh and Myanmar, has been increasing in Mumbai. It also noted that certain political parties have been leveraging this group as a voting bloc. The research, led by TISS Pro-Vice-Chancellor Shankar Das and Assistant Professor Souvik Mondal, highlighted that these illegal immigrants are affecting the city’s socio-economic landscape by filling low-skilled jobs, leading to wage suppression and dissatisfaction among locals.
The study, titled Illegal Immigrants to Mumbai: Analysing Socio-economic and Political Consequences, was presented at a private seminar at the TISS campus in Mumbai. Prof. Santishree Dhulipudi Pandit, Vice-Chancellor of JNU, New Delhi, was the chief guest and keynote speaker at the event.
Image- The Hindu, India Today
“Some political entities are alleged to use illegal immigrants for vote-bank politics, which can disrupt the democratic process. Claims of voter registration manipulation, where undocumented immigrants allegedly obtain fake voter IDs, raise concerns about electoral fairness and the integrity of India’s democratic system,” the study found.
“Some politicians may support granting IDs or ration cards to migrants for votes but politics-driven migration increases polarization and can impact electoral outcomes, diverting focus from essential development,” it added. The study also stated that a large influx of Muslim immigrants had altered the religious demographics, fostering feelings of insecurity and communal tensions, especially within Mumbai’s Hindu communities. It further proposed a connection between illegal immigration and rising crime rates in the city.
The study's authors also attributed responsibility to several NGOs and religious groups that assist these immigrants, which in turn leads to changes in the region's demographics and impacts its economy and politics. “Due to strict regulations, registered NGOs often avoid assisting illegal immigrants, leaving undocumented NGOs to fill the support gap without legal authority to challenge exploitation or advocate for migrant rights,” the study read.
According to the reports, the study authors analyzed approximately 3,000 immigrants, but the findings were presented prematurely, based on only 300 samples, ahead of the state elections set for November 20th. The immigrants included in this study currently live in Dharavi, Govandi, Mankhurd, Mahim West, and Ambedkar Nagar.
The Muslim community actively participated in mobilizing support for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra
It is important to highlight that OpIndia reported, following the conclusion of the Lok Sabha elections in May-June 2024, that the Muslim community in Maharashtra had mobilized with the specific aim of defeating the BJP. The election results in the state were striking, with Muslims extending their support to parties other than the BJP. The Shiv Sena, led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, secured 7 seats, while the BJP won 9. Meanwhile, the NCP (Sharad Pawar), Indian National Congress (INC), and Shiv Sena (UBT), which had the backing of Muslim and Communist voters, won 8, 13, and 9 seats respectively. These results strongly suggested that Muslims in Maharashtra voted strategically to oppose the BJP and its allies.
Following the elections, Shiv Sena leader and Maharashtra minister Deepak Kesarkar, a close associate of CM Eknath Shinde, claimed that ‘fatwas’ issued by Muslim leaders against the BJP played a significant role in enabling the Shiv Sena (UBT), INC, and NCP (Sharad Pawar) to secure the majority of seats in Mumbai and other regions of the state.
In particular, Islamist leaders in the Pune region had issued fatwas urging Muslim voters to support candidates from the Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar), and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) in constituencies such as Pune, Shirur, Baramati, and Mawal. This directive was announced during an event titled ‘Taqreer By Hazrat Maulana Sajjad Nomani,’ organized by Kul Jamati Tanzeem Pune in the Kondwa area on May 2.
During his address, Nomani emphasized that every Muslim voter should act in the community's interest. He also warned that if Modi returned to power, Mazars and Madarsas would be demolished. Additionally, Islamic flags were reportedly displayed during a rally organized by Shiv Sena (UBT) in Mumbai.
More than 180 NGOs are dedicated to registering Muslim voters and raising awareness
In the lead-up to the state elections on November 20, approximately 180 NGOs are actively engaging with the Muslim community to raise awareness and boost voter turnout—a strategy that proved effective for the MVA during the Lok Sabha elections.
Reports indicate that voter turnout in predominantly Muslim areas such as Shivaji Nagar, Mumbadevi, Byculla, and Malegaon Central was significantly higher compared to neighboring assembly segments during the Lok Sabha polls. This surge has been attributed to a mix of heightened voter concerns and targeted awareness campaigns conducted within the community over the past year.
The Marathi Muslim Seva Sangh has joined forces with over 180 NGOs to enhance voter registration and awareness efforts. Together, these organizations have been conducting meetings and informational sessions with Muslim voters across the state. “This led to a voter turnout exceeding 60% in the Lok Sabha election, about 15% higher than the previous average. We urge Muslims to support secular candidates and vote in alignment with the Constitution. Our partnership with other organizations and religious leaders has brought a stronger response. Over 200 meetings have been held statewide, contributing to the increase in voter turnout,” said Fakir Mehmood Thakur, the organization’s leader.
Thakur highlighted that concerns among Muslim voters regarding central government policies, such as the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC), contributed to the high voter turnout. He added that these issues remain significant in the context of the state elections.
Shakir Shaikh, coordinator of the Maharashtra Democratic Forum, mentioned that the forum organized at least 70 meetings statewide, including 18 in Muslim-majority areas of Mumbai, over the past two months. “Awareness and voter turnout among Muslims used to be quite low until recently. However, issues like the CAA, the Uniform Civil Code, and the Waqf Bill have motivated people to participate in voting. The awareness-building efforts and registration drive contributed to the high turnout in the Lok Sabha elections. In Mumbai alone, we have registered at least nine lakh new voters, and the response has been very encouraging,” he noted.
It is worth noting that the Marathi Muslim Seva Sangh has a history of glorifying Tipu Sultan, who is often regarded as one of the most ruthless Islamic rulers in India. Historical accounts describe numerous instances where Tipu’s forces allegedly engaged in forced conversions, sexual violence, and abductions of Hindus under his directives. Records also suggest that many temples were destroyed during his reign. Historians and researchers, including Khan Hussain Ali Kirmani, have documented Tipu Sultan's hostility toward local Hindus and tribal communities.
Meanwhile, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has been intensifying its campaign, asserting that it is the sole party advocating for Muslim issues. The AIMIM gained significant support from Muslim youth during the 2014 and 2019 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Following the 2019 elections, a tactical shift in voting emerged within the Muslim community, aimed at defeating the BJP, which in turn bolstered the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance in Maharashtra. However, this time, there appears to be discontent within the community over perceived inadequate representation of Muslim candidates.
Conclusion
Muslims in Mumbai are reportedly aligning themselves with the MVA, particularly the Shiv Sena (UBT), with a fervor not seen since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) posed a significant challenge. At that time, a wary Congress, recognizing growing discontent among Muslims, invoked the memory of the 2002 Gujarat riots to consolidate Muslim votes. The strategy worked, but it was the younger Muslim demographic, inspired by a party that viewed them as equal citizens rather than a vote bank, that actively campaigned for AAP’s 48 candidates in Maharashtra.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress-NCP alliance once again secured the Muslim vote, albeit more by default than by design. By then, incidents of mob lynching and the perceived complicity of the ruling party in such acts had become frequent. Faced with limited options, Muslims voted for the coalition seen as opposing the BJP, even though Congress’s grassroots presence in Maharashtra had waned. Despite its diminished influence, Congress managed to win just one seat in a state it had governed for 15 years.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the I.N.D.I.A. alliance emerged as the clear alternative for Muslims and other anti-BJP voters. The sentiment, encapsulated by the slogan, "Candidate toh majboori hai, I.N.D.I.A. alliance zaruri hai," underscored a collective resolve. Meanwhile, theories of "vote jihad" surfaced but were dismissed by left-leaning and Islamist circles. This time, the Muslim community openly acknowledged its role in mobilizing the electorate and expressed confidence in its ability to influence future elections.
Notably, over 900,000 new Muslim voters were registered in Mumbai alone by the Marathi Muslim Seva Sangh, posing a significant challenge to the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. Muslim voters have consistently supported parties like Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), and Shiv Sena (UBT), largely due to their opposition to the CAA and NRC. However, some non-Muslims who prioritize secularism often overlook the influence of communal voting blocs, inadvertently supporting parties accused of catering to specific communities.
Looking ahead, non-Muslim supporters of NCP, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Congress may come to reassess their choices, recognizing the implications of relying on communal vote banks in their bid to counter the BJP.
Maharashtra’s 288 legislative assembly seats will be contested in a single phase on November 20, with vote counting scheduled for November 23.
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