Introduction
In the heart of the Indian Ocean lies the Maldives, an archipelago of unparalleled beauty and strategic significance. In recent times, this idyllic nation has found itself at the center of a geopolitical tug-of-war between regional powers India and China, with implications far beyond its azure waters and pristine beaches.
At the forefront of this geopolitical stand-off is Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu, whose recent assertions regarding the presence of Indian military personnel on Maldivian soil have reignited discussions about the dangers of increasing Chinese influence in India’s neighborhood.
In an exclusive interview with the Times of India, President Muizzu reiterated his demand for the removal of Indian military forces from the Maldives, citing constitutional concerns and the democratic will of the Maldivian people. He also added that the geographical location of the Maldives makes it quite attractive for external powers to pull the country into their orbit. According to him Maldives is too small to get involved in geopolitical rivalry in the Indian Ocean and should not be pressured into taking sides in any such rivalry either.
History
India-Maldives relations have traversed a rich and multifaceted trajectory, deeply rooted in historical, cultural, and geopolitical affinities. Since the Maldives' independence in 1965, India has played a pivotal role in fostering bilateral ties marked by mutual respect and cooperation. Historically, India was among the first nations to recognize Maldives' sovereignty, laying the groundwork for a robust diplomatic relationship. Over the years, the two countries have collaborated closely on various fronts, including defense, maritime security, and development assistance. India has been a steadfast partner to the Maldives during times of crisis, providing crucial support during natural disasters and political transitions.
One significant milestone in India-Maldives relations is Operation Cactus, a remarkable display of bilateral cooperation and strategic partnership. In 1988, the Maldives faced a dire threat to its sovereignty when a group of armed insurgents attempted to overthrow the government. In response to a plea for assistance from Maldivian President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, India swiftly launched Operation Cactus. Indian military forces, including the Indian Army, Navy, and Air Force, executed a daring rescue operation, deploying troops to thwart the insurgency and restore order in the Maldives. Operation Cactus stands as a testament to the depth of friendship and mutual trust between India and the Maldives, underscoring India's commitment to safeguarding the stability and security of its neighbors in the Indian Ocean region. This historic operation not only bolstered the strategic partnership between the two nations but also solidified India's role as a reliable ally in times of crisis.
Economic cooperation between the two nations has flourished, with India contributing significantly to the Maldives' infrastructure development, healthcare, and education sectors. Furthermore, cultural exchanges and people-to-people interactions have strengthened the ties between the two nations, fostering a deep sense of camaraderie and understanding.
The Maldives, strategically located in the Indian Ocean, has historically been of paramount importance to India's maritime security interests. The close proximity of the Maldives to India's Lakshadweep Islands increases its significance as a critical node along major sea lanes of communication. However, recent shifts in Maldivian politics have strained bilateral relations between the two countries.
The Thorns
President Muizzu's ascent to power marked a departure from the pro-India policies of his predecessor, Ibrahim Solih. The Maldivian President ascended to power amidst a wave of anti-India sentiment spurred by the "India Out Campaign." His primary electoral pledge centered on the removal of Indian military presence from the country. This was also discussed between Muizzu and PM Modi on the sidelines of the COP 28 summit. His visit to Turkey before India signaled a shift in diplomatic priorities, further complicating India-Maldives relations.
His government also decided not to renew the hydrography agreement with India which allowed India to survey the waters around Maldives further increasing tensions with India.
The simmering tensions between India and the Maldives were exacerbated by derogatory remarks made by Maldivian officials against Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The subsequent boycott of Maldives by Indian tourists heavily impacted the Maldivian economy, which heavily relies on tourism and foreign investment.
However, amidst the diplomatic turbulence, President Muizzu has expressed optimism about the future of India-Maldives relations. Despite calls for the withdrawal of Indian troops, Muizzu emphasized the importance of dialogue and cooperation between the two countries. He highlighted areas of mutual interest, including defense cooperation and cultural exchange, as avenues for strengthening bilateral ties.
India's engagement with the Maldives extends beyond military cooperation, encompassing economic development, infrastructure projects, and humanitarian assistance. Over the years, India has been a steadfast partner to the Maldives, providing crucial support during times of crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic and contributing to the country's socio-economic development.
Yet, India's relationship with the Maldives is not without its challenges. The growing presence of China in the region, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative, has raised concerns about the Maldives' susceptibility to "debt trap diplomacy" and the erosion of its sovereignty. China's infrastructure projects and financial investments in the Maldives have reshaped the geopolitical landscape, prompting India to recalibrate its approach to the region.
The delicate dance between India, China, and the Maldives underscores the broader geopolitical contest for influence in the Indian Ocean. As President Muizzu plays one great power against another, it is yet to be seen what real benefit the people of Maldives get from any of his petty politics.
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