With the Narendra Modiji -led National Democratic Alliance securing a historic third-term victory in India's parliamentary election, global attention is now fixed on his administration's next steps. Modiji 's vision of India as a "vishwaguru" — a guiding force for the world — was a central theme of his campaign. With this resounding mandate, the trajectory under his leadership is set to not only transform the nation but also redefine its role on the international stage, presenting a blend of formidable challenges and promising opportunities.
Prime Minister Narendra Modiji and BJP National President JP Nadda greet supporters upon their arrival for a meeting at the party headquarters as the party leads in the Lok Sabha elections amid the counting of votes in New Delhi. PTI picture.
India's Future Unfolds: The Modi Government's Next Chapter
Economic Reforms and Growth
Modiji’s return to power signals a continued push for economic reforms that have seen India emerge as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. The government's strategic focus on boosting domestic production through subsidies promises significant support for semiconductor firms and electric vehicle makers. These initiatives aim to position India as a formidable alternative to China’s dominance in global supply chains.
Reducing Import Taxes for Competitive Manufacturing
In line with its vision to bolster manufacturing, Modiji’s government plans to reduce import taxes on key inputs for locally-made goods, which have traditionally inflated India’s manufacturing costs. This move is expected to enhance the competitiveness of Indian products on the global stage. According to unnamed Union government officials quoted by Reuters, these tax reductions are part of a broader strategy to attract global firms diversifying their supply chains from China.
Manufacturing as a Job-Creating Sector
India’s fast-growing economy presents a dichotomy: a booming tech sector on one hand and a struggling legacy economy that fails to provide enough jobs for its burgeoning youth population. In this context, manufacturing emerges as a crucial job-creating sector. The Modi government has been actively pitching India as an alternative manufacturing hub, aiming to leverage this sector to address the employment challenges.
Competing with China in Global Manufacturing
Under Modiji's previous tenure, India successfully attracted some suppliers for major US corporations, including Apple Inc. and Alphabet Inc.'s Google. Despite these successes, India still accounts for only about three percent of global manufacturing. In comparison, China, the main competitor, holds a commanding 24 percent share, according to World Bank data. Bridging this gap remains a significant challenge for the Modi administration as it strives to enhance India’s manufacturing capabilities.
A push for global multilateralism with a strong national identity
Modiji’s ambitions extend beyond economic prowess to envision a nation leading with a robust national identity while embracing global multilateralism. The solar treaty exemplifies this vision, serving as a beacon of international cooperation for clean energy. Amid the specter of war in the Middle East and Europe, and the looming possibility of military conflicts around the South China Sea, Modiji’s voice stands out with a powerful message of peace, distinguishing him as the only major world leader advocating for dialogue over conflict.
In his attempts to bring peace to Europe, which has failed to contain Russia from pummelling regions of Ukraine, Modiji told Vladimir Putin that “today’s era is not the era of war”.
Modiji’s government is pressing for a reform of the UN Security Council with the world’s most populous nation and fastest-growing major economy a permanent seat on the elite panel.
“Modiji will be one of the most senior leaders on the global circuit and that too with three election victories under his belt,” AFP quoted Harsh V Pant, professor of international relations at King’s College London. “He has set out major ambitions for himself and India and it’s unlikely that he would compromise on his legacy.”
India has interests, not allies
A New Direction in Foreign Policy
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modiji , India has shifted from traditional foreign policy signposts, emphasizing interests over allies. This pragmatic approach has garnered attention from the United States and European nations, which view India as a counterbalance to China. In 2023, US President Joe Biden hosted Modiji for a state dinner, highlighting the significance of US-India relations. Biden described this bilateral relationship as the “defining partnership of the 21st Century,” underscoring the strategic importance of India on the global stage.
Domestic Gains from Global Footprint
Modiji’s growing international influence has bolstered his standing domestically. By highlighting India's rising global stature, Modiji and his party leaders have strengthened their political narrative. The G20 presidency in the previous year serves as a prime example, where Modiji effectively leveraged G20 events to create talking points both domestically and internationally, showcasing India's leadership and diplomatic prowess.
Maintaining Ties Amid Criticism
Despite facing sharp criticism from Western nations for its trade relations with Russia amidst the Ukraine conflict, India has maintained its engagement with its BRICS partner. Addressing Western critics, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar remarked, “Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems, but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.” This stance highlights India's independent foreign policy approach, focusing on its strategic interests.
Strategic Partnerships with Russia
Russia remains India’s largest arms supplier, with the two nations sharing a long-standing defense relationship. India has not condemned Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, opting instead to abstain from UN resolutions against the Putin regime. Additionally, India has significantly increased its imports of discounted crude oil from Russia. In March, Modiji congratulated Putin on his reelection as Russia's president, emphasizing the “special” relationship between the two countries.
Balancing Global Dynamics
As Modiji navigates complex global dynamics, his administration continues to balance relationships with major powers. While strengthening ties with the United States and Europe, India also maintains robust relations with Russia, reflecting a nuanced approach to international diplomacy. This strategy allows India to assert its interests on the global stage while managing its diverse partnerships and geopolitical challenges.
A boost to the Quad in the Asia-Pacific
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarks on his third term, his focus is expected to be on building upon a decade of diplomatic initiatives, particularly strengthening ties with the US, Europe, Russia, and the Global South. Modiji’s engagement in strategic groupings like the Quad, which includes the US, Japan, and Australia, will also be a key priority. The Quad has emerged as a critical counterbalance to China’s increasing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region, reflecting the growing importance of multilateral alliances in India’s foreign policy.
Strengthening the Quad
China's aggressive posturing in the Asia-Pacific has underscored the significance of the Quad, which India is a part of alongside the US, Japan, and Australia. This grouping has positioned itself as a response to China’s growing influence. In a notable development, the US recently approved a $4 billion sale of advanced drones to India. These state-of-the-art drones are expected to enhance India’s capabilities in countering China’s military maneuvers, reinforcing the Quad’s strategic objectives.
India’s diplomatic strategy also includes expanding ties with European countries. There are high hopes for multi-billion-dollar defense deals with France, including the sale of Rafale fighter jets and Scorpene-class submarines. These agreements signify a deepening of India’s defense cooperation with Europe, aiming to bolster its military capabilities and strategic autonomy. Modiji ’s third term will likely see a continuation and expansion of such defense collaborations, enhancing India’s position on the global stage.
Modiji's third term will be marked by navigating complex geopolitical dynamics. While strengthening alliances with the US, Europe, and the Quad, India must also manage its relationship with Russia. This multifaceted approach aims to secure India's strategic interests while maintaining a balanced foreign policy. As India continues to assert its role in global affairs, Modiji’s diplomatic efforts will be crucial in shaping the country’s trajectory in an increasingly multipolar world.
Expect more on Global South
Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to position India as a leading voice for the Global South, portraying himself as the chief spokesperson for this diverse grouping of developing and underdeveloped nations. Despite a diminished parliamentary majority, another five years in office affords him greater authority and seniority on the world stage. Modiji has consistently advocated for empowering these nations, calling India "a strong and important voice of the Global South." Last year, India hosted two "Voice of the Global South" summits, further solidifying its role as a representative for Asian, African, and South American countries.
Elevating the African Union in the G20
Under Modiji 's leadership, India successfully lobbied for the African Union to become a permanent member of the G20, highlighting his commitment to enhancing the influence of developing nations in global decision-making. This milestone, achieved during India's G20 presidency, underscores Modiji's vision of a more inclusive international order. By championing the needs and perspectives of the Global South, Modiji aims to ensure that these nations have a greater say in shaping global policies, reflecting his broader diplomatic strategy of fostering equitable growth and cooperation.
What’s in for neighbours?
Sino-Indian Tensions and Strategic Rivalry
China has emerged as a persistent concern for India, despite both nations being members of key multilateral groupings like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Relations between the world's two most populous countries deteriorated in 2020 when Beijing's troops attempted to alter the status quo along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, leading to a deadly high-altitude skirmish. Tens of thousands of troops from both nuclear-armed nations continue to face off along their 3,500-kilometer frontier, with territorial disputes unresolved. Although China remains India's second-largest trade partner, this rivalry, coupled with India's increased military spending—up by 13% last year but still less than a quarter of China’s—will be a crucial development to monitor over the next five years.
The Complex India-Pakistan Relationship
China's influence extends to Pakistan, another complex player in India's geopolitical landscape. Historically adversarial, the relationship between India and Pakistan has seen phases of hopeful diplomacy followed by military confrontations or terror attacks, such as those in Uri and Pulwama. Modiji's government has largely refused to engage with Pakistan following these incidents, despite initial overtures like inviting then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Modiji's first swearing-in ceremony in 2014 and a surprise visit to Lahore. Recently, however, signs of potential diplomatic thaw have emerged, with Modiji congratulating Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in March and receiving feelers for friendship from Nawaz Sharif, who has returned from exile.
Maldives and the Shadow of China
China's influence is also evident in the Maldives, where pro-Beijing Mohamed Muizzu won the presidential election on an anti-India platform. Despite his initial stance, domestic resistance has led Muizzu to soften his position, sending his foreign minister to India and being one of the first to congratulate Modiji on his re-election. This shift highlights the delicate balance regional leaders must maintain between major powers.
“Neighbourhood First” Policy and Regional Diplomacy
The Modi government's "Neighbourhood First" policy is set to continue in its third term, emphasizing regional stability and cooperation. This policy has been crucial in managing relationships with neighboring countries amidst the growing influence of China. However, unlike the Quad—which is poised for further strengthening—the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is unlikely to receive significant attention or revival efforts from the Modi administration, reflecting a strategic pivot in regional diplomacy.
Economic and Military Balancing Act
As India seeks to position itself as a counterweight to China's dominance, its economic and military strategies will be pivotal. The government has already started increasing military expenditure and fostering defense ties with global partners, including a $4 billion drone deal with the US. Balancing economic growth with military preparedness remains a key challenge, especially as India aims to expand its manufacturing sector and reduce reliance on Chinese imports.
Navigating the Global South and Strategic Partnerships
Modiji's third term will also focus on consolidating India's role as a leader of the Global South, a vision he has actively promoted. Hosting the "Voice of the Global South" summits and securing the African Union's permanent membership in the G20 are testaments to this strategy. As India continues to navigate its complex relationships with major powers and regional neighbors, Modiji's leadership will be crucial in shaping the nation's trajectory on the global stage.
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