The visit of Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to Islamabad for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting of Heads of Government on October 16 marks a nascent but promising thaw in the fraught India-Pakistan relationship. This visit is significant as it is the first high-level trip by an Indian cabinet minister to Pakistan in nine years, reflecting the lack of political engagement between the two neighboring countries in recent years.
While the visit was not expected to resolve any of the long-standing bilateral issues, some of which date back to October 1947, the absence of heated exchanges, unlike the SCO meeting in Goa in May 2023, symbolizes a more positive atmosphere during Jaishankar's trip. Notably, there were no contentious references to Kashmir or the abrogation of Article 370, which is a positive sign.
In addition to addressing the formal SCO agenda, where Jaishankar delivered India’s national statement, he also met with Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar, the Deputy Prime Minister and close aide to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Their interactions over lunch and dinner were friendly and widely covered by media outlets.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar with Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during the 23rd meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of Government, in Islamabad, Pakistan. (PTI Photo)
A significant point of interest for both countries was the potential resumption of cricketing ties. With Pakistan set to host the Champions Trophy in February 2025, India's participation in a venue like Lahore would enhance Pakistan's image and generate financial benefits while fostering connections between millions of cricket fans in both nations. Historically, cricket has played a role in bridging India-Pakistan ties, as demonstrated by the Pakistan cricket team's visit to India for an ODI in September 2023. However, recent reports of cricket ties being revived have since been denied.
At the official level, both sides are proceeding with caution to avoid creating hype around any breakthroughs, emphasizing that discussions were "casual." Sources have highlighted that conversations between Jaishankar and Dar were "preliminary" and require further consideration.
This cautious approach is warranted given the history of false dawns in the complex India-Pakistan relationship. A notable example is Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's attempts to foster peace following the Lahore Accord in 1999, which were undermined by the Kargil war shortly thereafter.
During his first term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also sought to improve relations with Pakistan, famously visiting Lahore in December 2015. However, this impulsive move did not yield substantial results, and tensions escalated, particularly after the February 2019 Pulwama attack and subsequent Balakot airstrike.
India has since held Pakistan accountable for its support of jihadi terror groups, with Jaishankar condemning it for exporting terrorism at the UN General Assembly in September.
In this context, Jaishankar's visit brings a slender ray of hope amidst ongoing tensions. The Modi government's response to Pakistan during its third term will be crucial. Given the current diplomatic challenges India faces, such as with Canada and the US, a positive shift in relations with Pakistan could have beneficial regional implications.
At the SCO meeting in Islamabad, which included Chinese PM Li Qiang, Jaishankar addressed the common challenges of terrorism, separatism, and extremism. While achieving a consensus on these issues would be a significant milestone, it remains a daunting task, as the entrenched deep state in Pakistan appears unwilling to disengage from supporting jihadi groups, with China turning a blind eye to preserve its own interests in the region.
While Jaishankar's visit hints at the potential for a more substantial thaw in the bilateral relationship, much will depend on how the political and military power brokers in Islamabad and Rawalpindi react to this opportunity. Deeply entrenched interests and domestic lobbies opposed to meaningful improvement in relations could pose significant obstacles. The longstanding cycle of acrimony has often prevailed.
Ultimately, one can hope that the casual conversation between Jaishankar and Dar at the SCO may serve as a first step toward a more constructive relationship.
SCO Conference in Pakistan
Pakistan is hosting the meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of Government (CHG) on October 15 and 16.
Founded in 2001, the SCO aims to enhance political, economic, and security collaboration in the region.
The SCO includes Pakistan, China, India, Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus, along with 16 additional countries participating as observers or “dialogue partners.”
As stated in an official announcement, the event will see attendance from senior regional officials, including Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, according to PTI.
The last Indian Foreign Minister to visit Pakistan was Sushma Swaraj, who attended an Afghanistan conference in Islamabad in December 2015.
In August, Pakistan extended an invitation to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the SCO summit.
Jaishankar's visit to Pakistan is notable as it represents a significant diplomatic move from New Delhi.
India's Responsible and Key Contributors
Former caretaker Pakistani Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar described the SCO chairmanship as an “exciting moment” for Pakistan, asserting that the state of bilateral relations between Islamabad and New Delhi has “not overshadowed” the event.
Comments from Anwaar ul Haq Kakar
“I don’t think it is overshadowing it, rather it is contributing towards multilateral engagement which includes of course India. India is one of the responsible, important players on this forum and it is a diversified engagement which Pakistan is looking for,” Kakar said.
What Jaishankar stated during his visit to Pakistan
In a recent speech at an event, Jaishankar stated, “Like any neighbor, India certainly wishes to maintain good relations with Pakistan.” However, he added, “This cannot occur if we ignore cross-border terrorism and indulge in wishful thinking.” The choice to send the senior minister is viewed as a sign of India's commitment to the SCO.
India-Pakistan relations have significantly deteriorated since India's airstrikes on a Jaish-e-Mohammed terrorist training camp in Balakot, Pakistan, in February 2019, following the Pulwama terror attack. The situation worsened further when India revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir and divided the state into two union territories on August 5, 2019. In response to New Delhi's abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan downgraded its diplomatic relations with India.
India continues to assert its desire for normal neighborly relations with Pakistan, emphasizing that the responsibility lies with Islamabad to foster an environment devoid of terrorism and hostility for meaningful engagement.
In May 2023, Pakistan's then foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, made a visit to India to participate in an in-person meeting of SCO foreign ministers in Goa. This marked the first visit by a Pakistani foreign minister to India in nearly 12 years.
Enhanced security measures in Pakistan
Authorities have implemented stringent security measures for the upcoming SCO meeting in Islamabad.
In a statement, Islamabad's Inspector-General of Police (IGP) Nasir Ali Rizvi announced that a “comprehensive” security plan has been developed ahead of the crucial summit in the federal capital, as reported by PTI.
He stated that security personnel will be stationed in funnel areas, hotels, and locations where foreign delegations will be accommodated, ensuring the safety of foreign leaders, delegations, and guests.
Rizvi also mentioned that search and intelligence-based operations are ongoing, with members of the Pakistan Army, intelligence agencies, Frontier Corps (FC), and Rangers actively carrying out their duties.
The police chief highlighted that over 9,000 police personnel have been deployed for security purposes.
Additionally, he noted that an integrated traffic plan has been issued for the convenience of residents.
The government has also stationed army troops in the capital to address any potential issues and has announced a ban on all forms of protests and rallies in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and several other cities.
Top ministers say, "Pakistan is fully prepared"
Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stated that the country is fully prepared to host the SCO summit.
“We are ready to warmly welcome all summit participants, including the Indian foreign minister,” he told the media during a walkthrough event in Islamabad to assess the arrangements for the summit.
Dar emphasized that Pakistan is hosting a significant international event after several years and is committed to managing its responsibilities with excellence.
He also mentioned that the Chinese Premier is expected to engage in bilateral talks with his Pakistani counterpart, but he confirmed that no request for a bilateral meeting has been received from India.
Imran Khan's PTI warns of impending protests
In the meantime, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party has announced plans to stage a protest on October 15 against the restrictions placed on its imprisoned leader, Imran Khan. The party is urging the government to permit him to meet with his family, legal representatives, and medical team.
According to The News, there is a division within the party regarding the protest, with some members advocating for the withdrawal of the protest call. Among the dissenters are Asad Qaiser, Hamid Khan, and Raoof Hasan, who believe that holding such a protest is not in Pakistan's best interest. Ali Muhammad Khan, while not part of the PTI political committee, also expressed his dissatisfaction with the protest plans for October 15.
In a related development, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar criticized the party, without directly naming the PTI, for attempting to undermine the summit by calling for protests. "Protests during nationally significant events do not convey a positive message," Dar stated, as reported by the news agency PTI.
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