Introduction
In a groundbreaking study titled "Share of Religious Minority – A Cross Country Analysis (1950-2015)," the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) has shed light on India's remarkable performance in nurturing religious diversity. Amidst ongoing debates surrounding the status of religious minorities, the study presents a comprehensive analysis of global datasets and scenarios, challenging prevailing narratives and highlighting India's conducive environment for fostering diversity within its society.
The Findings
The study's findings are particularly noteworthy in the wider context of the South Asian neighborhood, where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased, and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Afghanistan. India's performance, as underscored by the study, suggests a nurturing environment that has allowed minority populations to thrive.
Population Trends
One of the key findings of the study is the demographic shift within India's religious landscape. Contrary to popular perceptions, the share of the majority Hindu population in India decreased by a significant 7.82 percent between 1950 and 2015, from 84.68 percent to 78.06 percent. Conversely, the Muslim population witnessed a remarkable 43.15 percent increase during the same period, rising from 9.84 percent in 1950 to 14.09 percent in 2015.
Indian Muslims constitute the largest segment of religious minority population in India. (Representative image/Reuters) LINK
Growth of Other Minority Groups
The study further highlights the growth of other minority religious groups in India. The Christian population saw a 5.38 percent increase, with their share rising from 2.24 percent in 1950 to 2.36 percent in 2015. The Sikh community also experienced notable growth, with a 6.58 percent increase in their share, from 1.24 percent in 1950 to 1.85 percent in 2015. Even the Buddhist population witnessed a significant increase, growing from a mere 0.05 percent in 1950 to 0.81 percent in 2015.
Declining Populations
While most minority groups experienced growth, the study also revealed a decline in the share of certain religious denominations within India's diverse landscape. The Jain population decreased from 0.45 percent in 1950 to 0.36 percent in 2015, and the Parsi population witnessed a stark 85 percent decline, reducing from 0.03 percent in 1950 to a mere 0.004 percent in 2015.
A Haven for the Persecuted
One of the remarkable aspects highlighted in the study is India's role as a haven for persecuted populations from neighboring countries. It cites examples such as the Tibetan Buddhists who fled China and found refuge in India, as well as the Matuas who escaped religious persecution in Bangladesh and were assimilated into Indian society. India has also opened its doors to significant populations of refugees from Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Afghanistan, underscoring its plural, liberal, and democratic nature, and its continued civilizational tradition of harboring persecuted populations.
BJP blames Congress
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has held the Congress responsible for the decline in the Hindu population. BJP leader Amit Malviya, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), stated, "The share of Hindus has decreased by 7.8% between 1950 and 2015, while the Muslim population has grown by 43%. This is the result of decades of Congress rule. If they had their way, there would be no country left for Hindus."
Union Minister and BJP candidate from Begusarai, Giriraj Singh, also voiced his concern over this demographic change. Singh highlighted that in the 65 years from 1950 to 2015, the Hindu population declined by more than 8%, which he considers alarming. He attributed this change entirely to the Congress party, accusing them of providing shelter to Rohingya and other Muslims without taking any measures to control their influx.
Singh further accused the Congress and other opposition parties of conspiring to turn India into an Islamic state, suggesting they are engaging in vote bank politics without regard for the country's sovereignty. "It seems they are preparing for Ghazwa-e-Hind and are actively working towards making India an Islamic state," he added.
Global Context
The study delves into the broader global context, acknowledging the demographic transitions underway across countries. It highlights the predictability of demographic forecasts compared to other megatrends like technology, economy, and climate change. The analysis reveals that the share of the majority religious denomination has decreased in four countries while increasing in five countries within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region, with Bangladesh witnessing an extraordinary 18.55 percent rise in the share of its Hanafi Muslim population.
Factors Driving Demographic Shifts
The study acknowledges that shifting demographic trends are aggravating economic disparity within and between countries, straining governance, and fueling friction between states and people. Political changes, as the study suggests, are mere symptoms of deeper structural changes happening in societies due to a variety of transformations, with demographic evolution being a crucial component.
Conclusion
The Economic Advisory Council's study presents a comprehensive analysis of India's religious demographic landscape, challenging prevailing narratives and highlighting the country's role as a nurturing environment for diversity and a haven for persecuted populations. While the findings have sparked political debates, the study underscores the need for a deeper understanding of the complex demographic shifts shaping societies and their implications for governance, economic disparity, and inter-state relations. As the global economy undergoes a phase of churn, closely watched by economists and policymakers, this study serves as a reminder that demographic transitions, often overlooked, have the power to reshape societies and states profoundly.
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