India to Contribute 6% to Global Trade Growth in 5 Years, Ranks 3rd After US & China: Report

According to the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report, jointly released by New York University’s Stern School of Business and German logistics company DHL, India is projected to account for 6% of global trade growth over the next five years.

DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report says during the next five years, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are forecasted to rank among the top 30 for both speed and scale of trade growth. (Photo: Reuters)

The report, which analyzes trade patterns across nearly 200 countries and territories, highlights that India’s contribution to global trade expansion will rank behind China, expected to contribute 12%, and the United States, projected at 10%.

“India also stands out as the country with the third-largest absolute amount of forecast trade growth (6 per cent of additional global trade), behind only China (12 per cent) and the United States (10 per cent),” according to the report. It observed that, despite geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty, global trade growth has remained resilient.

As per the report, India is projected to maintain its third position in the scale dimension, a rank it secured due to its trade growth outpacing that of other major economies. Additionally, India is anticipated to climb to 17th place in the speed dimension metric, advancing from its current rank of 32.

The report also emphasizes that while India ranked as the 13th largest player in global trade in 2024, its trade volume grew at a compound annual rate of 5.2% between 2019 and 2024—more than double the global trade growth rate of 2.0% during the same period.

"India's rapid trade growth reflected both its swift macroeconomic growth and its increasing participation in international trade. While China is often viewed as a more trade-oriented economy than India, India’s goods trade-to-GDP ratio was almost as high as China’s in 2023, and India’s trade intensity exceeded China’s when considering trade in both goods and services," the report indicates.

Regarding future global trade growth leaders, the report highlights that over the next five years, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines are projected to be among the top 30 countries in terms of both the speed and scale of trade expansion.

Speaking to the news agency ANI, RS Subramanian, Senior Vice President of South Asia at DHL Express, stated, "The Trade Atlas underlines India's rapid expansion in global trade, positioning the country as a critical hub connecting the East and West. While we anticipate trade volume growth and an increase in global trade share, we remain cautiously optimistic about the future given the global economy's general volatility."

India's Foreign Trade Outlook

As per the data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry for March 2025, cumulative exports (merchandise and services) from April to February 2024-25 are estimated at $750.53 billion, compared to $706.43 billion during the same period of the previous fiscal year, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.24%. Key contributors to the growth of merchandise exports in February 2025 included electronic goods, rice, mica, coal, other ores and minerals (including processed minerals), ready-made garments across all textiles, and coffee.

Trade with major partners like the US, UAE, UK, China, Japan, Brazil, and Australia continued to play a significant role. The trade deficit for FY24 stood at $78.12 billion, down from $121.6 billion in FY23, as reported by the Ministry of Finance.

(This Article was originally published by Business Standard)