Russia has selected Indian shipyards to construct four non-nuclear icebreaker ships, marking a strategic partnership to advance Russia’s Northern Sea Route initiative. This plan aims to create a new shipping corridor through the Arctic, significantly reducing travel time.
This project will notably enhance India’s shipbuilding capabilities and deepen maritime cooperation between India and Russia, bolstering their bilateral relations. It also promises to increase trade and economic collaboration, opening avenues for joint ventures and strengthening India’s presence in the global shipbuilding industry.
India’s Russian connection and significant icebreaker shipbuilding project make India even more relevant to Arctic issues. Image: REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo
The icebreakers will be engineered to withstand extreme Arctic conditions, enabling year-round navigation through the Northern Sea Route.
Icebreaker Ships
An icebreaker is a specialized ship or boat designed to navigate through ice-covered waters, creating safe pathways for other vessels. These ships are built with three key features: a reinforced hull, an ice-clearing shape, and the power needed to push through sea ice.
While the bending strength of sea ice is generally low, icebreakers can manage even thick ice by driving their bow onto it, causing the ice to break under the vessel's weight. Broken ice buildup in front of the ship can significantly slow progress, often more than breaking through the ice itself. To counter this, icebreakers have uniquely shaped hulls to direct broken ice around or beneath the ship. The external propulsion components, such as propellers and shafts, are more vulnerable to damage than the hull. Therefore, an icebreaker’s ability to move onto the ice, break it, and clear debris effectively is critical for safe operation.
The earliest icebreakers, powered by steam, appeared in 1837. Diesel-electric icebreakers were introduced in the 1930s. Russia currently operates all existing nuclear-powered icebreakers, beginning with the NS Lenin, launched in 1957 and operational by 1959, which was both the world’s first nuclear-powered surface ship and civilian vessel. In May 2007, Russia completed sea trials for the nuclear-powered icebreaker NS 50 Let Pobedy, now operated by the Murmansk Shipping Company, which manages Russia's eight state-owned nuclear icebreakers.
The Arctic Region
The Arctic region spans over one-sixth of Earth’s landmass and is poised to play an increasingly significant role in global affairs. This still relatively unexplored area is abundant in valuable natural resources, particularly oil, gas, and marine life. It’s estimated that the Arctic may contain nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas reserves. Surrounding the Earth’s North Pole, the Arctic Ocean holds vast expanses of floating ice, with ridges reaching up to 20 meters in thickness.
Due to global industrialization, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions have caused temperatures to rise, accelerating the melting of glaciers. In 2024, the minimum Arctic sea ice extent was recorded at 4.28 million square kilometers—around 1.8 million square kilometers below the long-term average. Arctic sea ice has been shrinking at a rate of nearly 13 percent per decade, and if this trend continues, the Arctic may be ice-free in the summer by 2040. As the ice melts, sea levels will rise, threatening to submerge numerous island territories and coastal cities. Climate change and global warming, therefore, stand as pressing issues that demand global attention.
Melting Ice and New Sea Routes
The reduction of ice sheets is leading to the formation of new water bodies. Countries bordering the Arctic Ocean have begun asserting claims over these bodies of water, aiming to exploit their resources, particularly oil and natural gas. Additionally, the melting ice is creating new maritime trade routes. While these routes should ideally be recognized as international waterways, territorial claims may limit unrestricted access. This situation could potentially open a summer sea route in northern Canada, linking the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Likewise, China is exploring an Arctic route to the Baltic States and Europe. Shorter sea routes would also decrease transportation costs.
The Arctic Council
In contrast to Antarctica, which is uninhabited and governed by a 1959 treaty permitting only peaceful activities, there is no equivalent treaty for the Arctic. The Arctic Council, established in 1996 through the Ottawa Declaration, addresses issues faced by Arctic nations and their residents. The eight countries with territory within the Arctic Circle— the United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia—are all members of this council. Additionally, the council allows for countries to hold observer status. In 2011, the Council outlined the criteria for observer admission, stipulating that applicants must “recognize Arctic States’ sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction in the Arctic” and “acknowledge that an extensive legal framework applies to the Arctic Ocean.” The Himalayas are often referred to as the ‘Third Pole,’ sharing certain characteristics with the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Therefore, it was significant for India to establish a presence in all three areas. In May 2013, India was designated as the 11th country to become a permanent observer at the Arctic Council.
Militarization and the Arctic Cold War
For a long time, both Russia and the United States have deployed weapons, including Russian nuclear deterrents, in the Arctic region. Each nation has established military bases and significant surveillance systems there, leading to a situation where the Arctic is effectively militarized. Russia has been operating nuclear-powered icebreakers in the area for some time. The Arctic Military Environmental Cooperation (AMEC) agreement, involving Russia, the US, and Norway, facilitated the decommissioning of a notable number of former Soviet nuclear submarines. Additionally, the US has scaled back its assets stationed in Alaska. However, the competition for Arctic control among various countries, particularly the US and Russia, has sparked a new Cold War. Since the onset of tensions over Ukraine in 2014, the previously cooperative dynamic has begun to deteriorate.
Arctic Maritime Pathways
The melting ice caused by global climate change is increasingly opening up the Arctic region, especially during the summer months and for longer periods. There are three primary shipping routes in this area.
First, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) runs along Russia's Arctic coast. This route is among the first to clear of ice, allowing for extended access and boasting the greatest commercial potential. It significantly shortens the maritime distance between East Asia and Europe, reducing the journey from 21,000 km via the Suez Canal to 12,800 km, leading to a transit time savings of 10 to 15 days. Historically, the NSR was extensively used for natural resource extraction and transportation during the Soviet era and served military resupply operations. In 2009, two German vessels, accompanied by a Russian icebreaker, completed the first commercial journey along the NSR, traveling from Busan, South Korea, to Rotterdam, Netherlands, and highlighting its commercial prospects.
The Northwest Passage (NWP), which connects the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago, saw its first usage in 2007 and may soon become more regularly navigable. While Canada considers it an internal waterway, the United States and several European countries argue that it should be recognized as an international strait, necessitating free and unobstructed passage. This route offers a distance of approximately 13,600 km between East Asia and Western Europe, compared to 24,000 km via the Panama Canal. However, certain segments are only 15 meters (49 ft) deep, which limits its viability. Nevertheless, China appears interested in utilizing this passage to reach the Eastern US, given that the Panama Canal has restrictions on ship size and tonnage.
Finally, the Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) is a proposed route that would connect the Strait of Bering to the Atlantic Ocean port of Murmansk by traversing the central Arctic. This route remains theoretical, as it would require ice-free conditions that have not yet been achieved. The Arctic Bridge, linking Murmansk to Narvik in Norway and extending to Churchill in Canada, is primarily used for grain trade, but it cannot be classified as a true trans-Arctic route.
China: An Emerging Force in the Arctic
As China has emerged as a significant global power, it has demonstrated a growing interest in the Arctic region. The country has been developing military and other capabilities to safeguard its interests in the area and has adopted a proactive Arctic policy. Denmark, with support from the United States, rejected China's proposal to purchase an aging military base in Greenland and construct an international airport. The US is actively monitoring and challenging China’s activities in the Arctic.
In January 2018, China released its official Arctic Policy paper, outlining its foreign relations with Arctic nations. China aims to establish infrastructure in the Arctic for research, military, and other purposes, while also seeking to exploit natural resources. The country has ambitious plans for a Polar Silk Road, which is intended to facilitate global shipping. China regards itself as a “Near-Arctic State” and a significant stakeholder in the region, asserting its status as the continental state closest to the Arctic Circle. As early as 1925, China signed the Spitsbergen Treaty, now known as the Svalbard Treaty, which permits member nations to conduct limited mining while acknowledging Norway's sovereignty over the territory.
China has established a Polar Research Institute in Shanghai and has conducted Arctic expeditions since 1984. In 1996, it became a member of the International Arctic Science Committee and operates a fleet of research vessels, including the polar icebreaker MV Xue Long. The Arctic Yellow River station was built in 2004.
In 2018, the Shanghai-based COSCO Shipping Corporation Limited completed eight transits through the Arctic between Europe and China. China asserts that its one-fifth share of the world's population should benefit from Arctic resources, and it invests more in Arctic research than the US.
The “Polar Silk Road,” launched in 2018, is a collaborative initiative between China and Russia. Like Russia, China aims to develop nuclear-powered icebreakers for Arctic operations, potentially becoming the second country to achieve this. Utilizing the Arctic shipping route allows for a maritime distance of approximately 7,000 kilometers shorter from Shanghai to Hamburg compared to the southern route through the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal.
India's shipbuilding capabilities
India's shipbuilding capacity is on a steady upward trajectory, projected to reach 69 million gross tonnes (gt) by 2025 and peak at 81 million gt by 2030. However, this is still 26 percent lower than the peak level achieved in 2011. Cochin Shipyard Ltd. boasts the highest shipbuilding capacity, with a deadweight tonnage (DWT) of 110 thousand, enabling it to construct and repair large vessels, including two of India's largest double hull crude oil tankers. Hindustan Shipyard Ltd. has a shipbuilding capacity of 80 thousand DWT. Currently, India holds less than 1 percent of the global shipbuilding market, while China, South Korea, and Japan dominate with an 85 percent share.
The proportion of cargo transported by Indian-owned or flagged vessels has declined over the past decade, now accounting for only about 5.4 percent. India's Maritime India Vision 2030 (MIV 2030) and the Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 aim to elevate the country to the top 10 shipbuilding nations by 2030 and the top 5 by 2047. The government plans to establish multiple shipbuilding clusters in collaboration with coastal states.
According to the Shipbuilding Global Market Report 2024, the global shipbuilding market is expected to grow from $207.15 billion in 2023 to $220.52 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5 percent. The report highlights that the Asia-Pacific region was the largest market for shipbuilding in 2023, followed by Western Europe.
India's Arctic Presence and Interests
India has maintained a permanent Arctic research station in Svalbard, Norway, since July 2008. Known as “Himadri,” it is situated within the International Arctic Research Base, approximately 1,200 kilometers from the North Pole. Research conducted at the station focuses on various topics, including fjord dynamics, glacier monitoring, space weather, and carbon recycling. Additionally, India is exploring fields such as genetics, glaciology, geology, and atmospheric pollution.
In 2014, India launched an underwater moored observatory named “IndARC” in the Kongsfjorden fjord, Svalbard. This area is recognized as the northernmost year-round settlement on the planet, home to around 2,200 residents. The scientific objective of this initiative is to investigate the connections between Arctic weather conditions and the southwest monsoon.
As a rising major power, India aspires to play a significant role in the evolving power dynamics of the Arctic region. Notably, ONGC Videsh, India’s oil and gas exploration company, has shown interest in investing in Arctic liquefied natural gas projects in Russia.
In March 2022, India unveiled its Arctic policy titled "India and the Arctic: Building a Partnership for Sustainable Development." This policy outlines India’s priorities in scientific research, climate and environmental issues, economic opportunities, sea connectivity, and establishing its presence in the Arctic. India is also focused on Arctic sea lanes to enhance connectivity with select northern destinations.
To further connect with Arctic sea routes, India plans to utilize the already proposed 7,200-kilometer-long International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which encompasses a multimodal network of shipping, rail, and road routes. This corridor aims to facilitate freight movement between India, Iran, Azerbaijan, Russia, Central Asia, and Europe, significantly reducing transportation costs by $2,500 per 15 tonnes of cargo.
Moreover, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) is a project aimed at developing infrastructure to boost trade among India, the Middle East, and Europe. This initiative will encompass roads, railways, ports, pipelines, and maritime routes.
Other potential routes under consideration include pathways through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, as well as a maritime corridor from Chennai to Vladivostok to enhance access to the Arctic region.
The Road Ahead
The Arctic continues to attract researchers eager to explore what appears to be "the next great game." Unlike Antarctica, Arctic nations already have established ownership over much of the region through the Law of the Sea. Nevertheless, discussions surrounding great power dynamics, competition, and potential conflicts in the Arctic are increasingly captivating the strategic community.
Russia’s Northern Fleet holds a strategically advantageous position across the Arctic, making it the most influential force among Arctic states. Notably, the United States became an Arctic nation by purchasing Alaska from Russia for $7.2 million in 1867. Canada and Northern European countries have significant stakes in the region, and the US is likely to collaborate closely with them.
While China is asserting its status as a “near-Arctic state,” India is too distant to make similar claims. India hopes for increased intra-regional cooperation over conflict, but the global rivalry among the US, Russia, and China is already having significant implications. To remain relevant, India must stay actively involved and establish a presence in the Arctic. Its historical ties to Russia, combined with a major icebreaker shipbuilding initiative, enhance India's significance in the region. India’s interests demand more than a passive wait-and-see approach.
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