On September 17, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated his 74th birthday, he received an unexpected gesture from then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. Trump unilaterally announced plans to meet PM Modi during the latter’s upcoming visit to the U.S. for the Quad Summit. Although the meeting never materialized, it highlighted the close ties between the two leaders despite their complex history.
Their camaraderie was evident again on Wednesday when PM Modi became one of the first world leaders to congratulate Trump on his historic presidential win, referring to him as "my friend." The message was accompanied by photos of the two leaders holding hands at rallies in Gujarat and Texas during Trump’s first term.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi hugs Donald Trump. Source: Reuters | FILE.
Shortly after, Trump followed up with a phone call, during which he expressed his admiration for Modi, calling him a "true friend" and stating that "the whole world loves" him. Trump described Modi as a "magnificent man," just weeks after referring to him as a "total killer."
Political analysts noted that Trump’s first post-victory calls were to PM Modi, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, rather than to any NATO leaders.
"US-India ties could face a few bumps (mainly on the trade side) with Trump back in office, but their chemistry and political and ideological convergences will be a stabiliser," said Michael Kugelman, a South Asia policy expert.
How Trump's Presidency Impacts India-US Relations
The exchange between PM Modi and Donald Trump is being viewed as a positive development, echoing the Republican leader’s first term, when India-US relations flourished, particularly in the realm of defense cooperation. It also spares India from navigating a complex relationship with Kamala Harris, who remains relatively less familiar, especially as the Khalistani issue adds strain to Indo-US ties.
With the current US administration intensifying its focus on the alleged murder plot involving Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, India may hope for a de-escalation of this emphasis under a Trump presidency.
During Trump’s first term, New Delhi and Washington shared common ground on various strategic matters. India now looks forward to renewed support from a potential Trump administration, particularly in its fight against global terrorism and efforts to counter adversaries like Pakistan.
India still recalls the Trump administration’s suspension of $300 million in aid to Pakistan and the designation of Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar as a global terrorist following the 2019 Pulwama attack.
Furthermore, Trump’s commitment to fostering peace in regions like the Middle East and Ukraine aligns with PM Modi’s stance that "this is not an era of war." "I am not going to start wars, I am going to stop wars... for four years we had no wars," Trump said in his victory speech.
Anticipate Strengthening of Military Relations
The focus will primarily be on strengthening military ties and expediting existing defense agreements, as India continues to rely on Russia to meet its defense needs. The Biden administration has repeatedly voiced concerns over India’s military and technological engagement with Russia.
During his first term, Trump took significant steps to remove obstacles in U.S.-India defense cooperation, including the signing of a key agreement that provided New Delhi access to sensitive communication systems and encrypted defense technologies from the U.S.
Trump also played a pivotal role in revitalizing the Quad, a strategic alliance between India, the U.S., Japan, and Australia, widely viewed as a response to China's growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
This development proved advantageous for India, particularly during its border standoff with China in Doklam. Although tensions between India and China have eased following the resolution of the four-year standoff along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), New Delhi can still count on strong U.S. support should hostilities escalate again.
Challenges in Trade and Immigration?
A protectionist Trump in the White House could significantly impact India, particularly regarding trade and immigration. Trump, who made "America First" a central theme of his campaign, has accused India of being a "major abuser" in its trade dealings with the U.S. He has also vowed to impose retaliatory tariffs on Indian exports.
India will also need to consider the sharp rise in H-1B visa denial rates during Trump’s first term, which jumped from 6% in 2016 to 24% in 2018, creating challenges for IT professionals seeking non-immigrant work visas. How India navigates these complex issues during a potential second Trump term remains to be seen.
Modi-Trump friendship
Modi reflected on his memorable interactions with Trump during his first term, including the 'Howdy Modi' event in Houston and the 'Namaste Trump' event in Ahmedabad. Highlighting their close ties, Modi shared on X that he had a "great conversation" with his "friend" Trump.
On Wednesday night, PM Modi posted on X, expressing his delight over the discussion with Trump.
“Heartiest congratulations my friend @realDonaldTrump on your historic election victory,” Modi wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
In a remarkable political comeback, Trump, 78, has won the U.S. presidential election, defeating Democratic opponent Kamala Harris to become the 47th President. Trump previously served as the 45th President following his 2016 election victory.
Trump is set to take office as the 47th President of the United States on January 25, making history as the first U.S. President in over a century to serve non-consecutive terms. He lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden, while Harris has served as Vice President since January 2021.
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