Introduction
In a seismic policy shift, the Maldives government, led by President Mohamed Muizzu, has chosen not to renew the hydrography agreement with India. This landmark decision, signaling the end of a bilateral pact inked in 2019, has far-reaching implications, not only for the immediate bilateral ties between the Maldives and India but also for the broader regional power dynamics.
As the agreement, allowing India to conduct hydrographic surveys in Maldivian territorial waters, approaches its expiration on June 7, 2024, this article explores the multifaceted aspects surrounding the termination, delving into the historical context, the reasons behind the decision, and the potential geopolitical ramifications.
Background of the Hydrography Agreement
The hydrography agreement, a diplomatic milestone signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the Maldives in June 2019, was a testament to the collaborative efforts between the Indian Navy and the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF).
It provided a framework for joint hydrographic surveys, leveraging resources such as Indian Naval Ships INS Darshak and INS Sutlej. These surveys, conducted annually from 2021 to 2023, were not confined to updating navigational charts; they played a pivotal role in supporting vital sectors in the Maldives, including tourism and fisheries. The collaborative efforts also included providing hydrographic equipment and training to MNDF personnel, aligning with India's policy of aiding the Maldives in enhancing its hydrographic capabilities.
Reasons Behind Maldives' Decision
1. Regime Change and Shifting Alliances:
President Muizzu's ascendancy, associated with the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), marks a distinct shift from the India-friendly policies of his predecessor, President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. This political realignment is mirrored in the decision to terminate the hydrography agreement, ostensibly aligning with Muizzu's inclination towards fostering closer ties with China.
2. Geopolitical Dynamics in the Indian Ocean:
The decision reflects the broader regional power play, where China's burgeoning influence, exemplified by initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has gradually encroached upon India's traditional sphere of influence in the region. By terminating the hydrography agreement, the Maldives may be signaling a nuanced attempt to diversify its international partnerships amid the ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.
3. 'India Out' Campaign and National Security Emphasis:
The decision finds roots in the lingering allegations of Indian military presence in the Maldives. Coupled with the Muizzu administration's pronounced emphasis on national security and the imperative of self-reliance in hydrographic capabilities, it underscores a strategic move towards sovereignty and self-sufficiency. The commitment to future hydrography works being managed entirely by Maldivian entities signals a resolute shift in approach.
Key Points and Activities under the Hydrography Agreement
The hydrography agreement facilitated joint surveys in 2021, 2022, and 2023, involving detailed mapping of Maldivian waters. Indian Naval Ships contributed significantly to updating navigational charts crucial for safe maritime transportation. The surveys were not limited to cartography; they included tidal observations, identifying new shoals, and providing support to MNDF. India's role extended beyond the surveys, encompassing the provision of hydrographic equipment and training to MNDF personnel.
India's Hydrographic Survey Agreements with Other Countries
India's engagement in hydrographic surveys extends beyond the Maldives. The National Hydrographic Office has spearheaded similar efforts in various countries, including Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Bangladesh. The overarching theme has been one of international cooperation, especially in regions where hydrographic capabilities are limited.
Possible Outcomes and Implications
1. Changing Geopolitical Landscape:
The termination of the hydrography agreement serves as a poignant indicator of the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean. With China's influence on the rise, challenging India's traditional role, this decision holds broader implications for regional power dynamics and strategic alliances.
2. Impact on India-Maldives Relations:
Beyond the immediate cessation of the hydrography agreement, the move could potentially strain India-Maldives relations. This decision represents a notable departure from the historically close ties between the two nations, raising questions about the future trajectory of their bilateral engagements. India's military presence in the Maldives and its role in providing emergency support may face a thorough reevaluation.
3. Regional and Global Hydrographic Efforts:
As the Maldives seeks to assume greater control over hydrographic activities, the role of India in supporting regional hydrographic efforts may undergo adjustments. The National Hydrographic Office's continued emphasis on fostering international cooperation in hydrography, particularly in regions with limited capabilities, assumes added significance in this context.
Conclusion
The decision by the Maldives government not to renew the hydrography agreement with India represents a transformative shift in foreign policy of Maldives. It is important to see how the people of Maldives will respond to the new policy shift by their Government despite the numerous occasions where India has lent a helping hand to the people of Maldives.
Comments