The relationship between India and Afghanistan has historically been strained due to Pakistan’s significant influence on Afghanistan's politics and security. However, the increasing cooperation between India and Afghanistan in recent years has raised fresh concerns for Pakistan, which fears a loss of its influence in Kabul.
India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri with Acting Afghan FM Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. The two discussed several issues, including trade and cricket. Image courtesy MEAIndia/X
As India deepens its connections with Afghanistan through development initiatives and strategic alliances, Pakistan is increasingly anxious about its regional position, particularly as Afghanistan's evolving political landscape offers India greater opportunities to solidify its presence.
India's Enduring Relationship with Afghanistan
India’s relationship with Afghanistan has primarily been shaped by its commitment to supporting the country's sovereignty and development. Over time, India has extended substantial humanitarian aid, undertaken infrastructure projects, and provided diplomatic backing, fostering goodwill among the Afghan people. India has played a key role in building schools, hospitals, roads, and power facilities, consistently advocating for peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Even after the Taliban's takeover of Kabul in 2021, India maintained a pragmatic approach. While exercising caution, India has remained engaged in Afghanistan, with a focus on humanitarian assistance, particularly medical supplies and vaccines.
India has also contributed to critical infrastructure projects such as the Zaranj-Delaram highway and the Salma Dam, which are essential for Afghanistan’s connectivity and progress. These initiatives not only reflect India’s dedication to Afghanistan's future but also underscore its increasing influence in the region.
Historical Role and Security Concerns of Pakistan
For Pakistan, Afghanistan has been a central element in its regional security strategy, serving as both a buffer zone and a potential ally in its rivalry with India.
Pakistan has long considered a friendly government in Kabul essential for preserving its strategic depth. This perspective has driven Islamabad to support the Taliban, viewing them as a reliable partner to align Afghanistan with its interests, especially in countering India's influence.
However, the shift in Afghanistan’s foreign policy following the Taliban's return has raised considerable concerns in Pakistan. With the Taliban adopting a more neutral stance on India and enhancing trade and infrastructure ties with New Delhi, Pakistan worries that Afghanistan might increasingly align with India, diminishing Pakistan's influence.
The growing ties between India and Afghanistan are seen by Islamabad as a direct challenge to its longstanding role as the primary power broker in Kabul.
As noted by Naila Mahsud, a Pakistani political and international relations researcher, in Arab News, Afghanistan’s foreign policy shift—from relying on Pakistan to seeking closer relations with India—is altering regional dynamics. This development has left Pakistan uneasy, facing a two-front challenge: preserving its influence in Kabul while contending with India’s expanding political and economic presence in Afghanistan.
Taliban's Pragmatic Neutrality and India's Expanding Influence
Since 2021, the Taliban’s foreign policy has been characterized by cautious pragmatism, seeking to engage with both India and Pakistan while avoiding conflict with either. Although this neutrality appears balanced, it is increasingly perceived as favoring India due to India’s ongoing humanitarian and development initiatives in Afghanistan.
A key concern for Pakistan is the expanding economic and diplomatic ties between India and Afghanistan. Afghanistan has become more reliant on India for development assistance, and the Taliban has shown little reluctance in accepting India’s aid.
For Pakistan, this represents a stark departure from the previous political landscape, where Kabul was more closely aligned with Islamabad. The Taliban’s willingness to collaborate with India, despite its firm stance on many global issues, indicates a shift in Afghanistan’s foreign policy that diminishes Pakistan’s influence.
Pakistan’s strategic vulnerabilities are further exposed by India’s development of the Chabahar port in Iran, which offers Afghanistan an alternative trade route to global markets without passing through Pakistan. As a result, India’s influence in Afghanistan is growing, while Pakistan’s role as the primary transit hub for Afghan trade is diminishing.
Intense Clashes Between Pakistan and Afghanistan
The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been severely strained by violent confrontations along their shared border, particularly since the Taliban regained control of Kabul.
A primary source of tension has been the Durand Line, a border that has long been a point of contention between the two nations. This line has witnessed frequent clashes, with insurgent activities and cross-border terrorism exacerbating the violence. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of harboring militants from groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), who are responsible for numerous attacks within Pakistan.
Conversely, Afghanistan alleges that Pakistan is backing militant groups that contribute to the instability within its own borders. These ongoing violent incidents have further fueled distrust between the two countries.
In December 2024, Pakistani airstrikes targeted villages in Afghanistan’s Paktika province, resulting in the deaths of at least 46 civilians, including women and children. The airstrikes were reportedly retaliation for Taliban actions near the border.
In response, the Taliban launched assaults on Pakistani border checkpoints, leaving at least 19 Pakistani soldiers and three Afghan civilians dead. Additionally, in September 2024, the construction of a Taliban security outpost in Kurram district led to Pakistani forces retaliating, which resulted in five Pakistani soldiers being injured and eight Taliban fighters killed.
Afghanistan: A Battleground for Global Influence
Pakistan views India's growing involvement in Afghanistan's reconstruction as part of a broader strategy to undermine its regional influence. The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan left a substantial power vacuum, and Pakistan initially seemed to have control over the Taliban leadership. However, the Taliban soon implemented policies focused on Afghanistan, surprising Islamabad.
Learning from past strategic errors in the 1990s, India took a pragmatic approach toward the Taliban, further isolating Pakistan and its intelligence agency, ISI, in Afghanistan. Pakistan perceives India's increasing presence in Afghanistan not just as a diplomatic shift but as a direct challenge to the regional power balance.
India has leveraged its soft power by providing aid, investing in infrastructure, and engaging in multilateral diplomacy, establishing a significant footprint in Afghan geopolitics.
Under Taliban rule, Afghanistan now faces the challenge of balancing competing interests from Pakistan, India, and other major players like China and Russia. For Pakistan, this shifting landscape represents a serious threat, as the possibility of Afghanistan aligning more closely with India could diminish its regional influence.
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