Introduction
India's relationship with China is characterized by both cooperation and competition, with lingering border disputes and strategic rivalries coupled with growing economic ties. As China seeks to expand its influence, especially in South Asia, India aims to counterbalance its neighbor while advancing its own regional interests.
"Dr. S. Jaishankar, External Affairs Minister chaired the UNSC briefing on Threats to International Peace and Security caused by Terrorists Act" by MEAphotogallery is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.
Competing with China's Rising Global Clout
At an event in Mumbai, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar remarked that global politics is competitive and India should focus on performing better than China rather than being concerned about Beijing’s growing influence. Given its major economy, China will utilize its resources to shape things in its favor as part of realpolitik. Rather than complaining, India must strategically maximize its strengths.
This comes amidst the ongoing border tensions between the two Asian giants. The 20th round of military talks last October focused on overall disengagement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh.
Previously, Jaishankar had conveyed to China that normal bilateral relations require a solution to the boundary issue. India has to secure its defenses given China's violation of past agreements.
China's Expanding Footprint in the Maldives
When asked about the "India Out" campaign in the Maldives, Jaishankar expressed confidence in Indian diplomacy, arguing that neighbors inevitably have complex relationships despite political rhetoric.
The recent election of President Mohamed Muizzu saw the Maldives prioritize ties with China over India. Muizzu’s first overseas visit was to China instead of India, going against tradition.
There are apprehensions about China’s growing investments and infrastructure projects in the Maldives under its Maritime Silk Road initiative. This could potentially leverage debt-trap diplomacy to increase China’s geostrategic influence over the island nation.
India is attempting to revive ties with the Maldives through trade, connectivity and development assistance under the Neighborhood First policy. But concerns remain about China’s hegemonic ambitions in India's strategic backyard.
Diplomatic Tensions Between India and Maldives
After Indian PM Modi posted pictures in Lakshadweep, three Maldivian ministers made derogatory tweets about him in January 2024. This sparked an outrage on Indian social media.
Though the ministers were suspended, many Indian tourists boycotted the Maldives, impacting its tourism-dependent economy. This highlighted the tensions between India and the pro-China regime of President Muizzu .
Muizzu’s "India Out" campaign and visiting China first after assuming office deviated from tradition, signaling efforts to distance the Maldives from India.
China's Growing Presence in the Indian Ocean Region
China's expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean region, especially in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and the Maldives, is a major concern for India's strategic interests.
Through projects related to the Belt and Road Initiative, China has funded and developed ports, airports and bridges in these countries under its "String of Pearls" maritime strategy.
This increases China's economic leverage and regional clout. The pro-China tilt of the new Maldivian president could exacerbate these challenges for India.
Countering China's Ambitions in the Neighborhood
India has responded to China's increasing presence in the Indian Ocean region through intense diplomatic and defense engagement with key nations in the neighborhood.
By providing economic aid, investing in infrastructure and expanding defense partnerships, India aims to shore up its regional influence and counterbalance China's ambitions.
India's Neighborhood First policy and Act East initiative are driven by similar objectives to protect national security interests against Chinese encroachment on India's sphere of influence.
Concerns Related to Debt Trap Diplomacy
China's debt-financed investments and infrastructure projects in countries like the Maldives, Sri Lanka and Pakistan have sparked major concerns about debt-trap diplomacy.
This could potentially saddle these developing nations with unsustainable debt burdens, forcing them to surrender strategic assets or align policies with China's interests.
For example, after Sri Lanka struggled with Chinese debt for the Hambantota port project, it signed a 99-year lease granting China control over the port for debt relief.
Such outcomes would extend China's economic and geopolitical leverage in India's strategic backyard. Hence, debt trap implications pose a serious threat.
Apprehensions About Impacting Democratic Progress
China's interference in the domestic politics of neighboring countries like the Maldives, and its support to conservative factions, could negatively impact the nurturing of vibrant democracies in these nations.
President Muizzu’s continuation of the previous Maldivian regime's pro-China and authoritarian tendencies, despite his democracy agenda, has raised concerns in India.
With China prioritizing its self-interests while engaging economically, its influence could strengthen regressive political forces and undermine democratic progress in India's periphery.
Strategic Significance of Maldives for India's Security
The Maldives holds great strategic value due to its location along key sea lanes in the Indian Ocean region. China's strong presence and influence over the island country could pose challenges for India.
Loss of influence over the Maldives would mean losing an important partner that sits astride critical SLOCs (Sea Lines of Communication) running from the Middle East and East Africa.
This could potentially allow China to gain a commanding position in India's backyard and cut off India's access to vital energy routes.
China's adequate presence in Maldives could also permit it to rapidly deploy naval assets against India during a conflict. Hence, for India, keeping the Maldives within its geopolitical orbit is imperative.
China's Emerging Pre-Eminence in the Indian Ocean
Through huge investments and infrastructure projects in littoral states, China is rapidly expanding its footprint in the Indian Ocean region, long considered India's strategic backyard.
Besides the Maldives, China has acquired strategic ports and facilities in Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan under the Maritime Silk Road plan that could potentially service military objectives in a crisis.
These dual-use facilities significantly enhance China's strategic posture against India in the Indian Ocean theater, posing a formidable challenge to India's dominance in its own maritime domain.
Leveraging Geographic Proximity
Unlike India's contiguous borders with other South Asian nations, China does not share a direct land or maritime boundary with the countries in India's neighborhood.
However, China's close proximity to India's periphery allows it to employ ingenious strategies to make strategic inroads into countries along India's frontiers.
For instance, China leverages its advantageous geographical position to withhold hydrological data for rivers flowing into India. This impacts nations downstream, amplifying tensions between India and its neighbors.
India's Vulnerabilities vis-a-vis China
India faces stark geographical and economic asymmetries in its relations with China. The absence of a defined boundary and China's refusal to accept the LAC makes border disputes more intractable.
China's rising military and economic heft has provided it greater coercive abilities to mount sustained aggression along the LAC as seen in Doklam and Ladakh.
China's upstream position gives it control over transboundary rivers. Its dam-building activities on rivers like the Brahmaputra have raised India's concerns over water-sharing and security.
With wider power differentials, China is also better poised than India to undertake strategic inroads into South Asia through debt-trap diplomacy and deep pockets.
Quad Collaboration to Balance Chinese Unilateralism
To hedge against China's growing belligerence, India has embraced minilateral platforms like the Quad and trilateral grouping with the US and Japan to institute collaborative security architectures in the Indo-Pacific region.
While China has created anti-US blocs like the Russia-China partnership, India is involved in coordinated approaches to counter Chinese expansionism and safeguard the rules-based international order.
Despite recent Quad members' overtures to China, India remains focused on upholding its alignment with fellow democracies to balance China and protect shared security interests.
Advancing Neighborhood Ties to Counter Chinese Inroads
Through the Neighborhood First policy, India has prioritized strengthening economic, social and strategic cooperation with nearby countries to mitigate China's inroads into South Asia.
This involves proactive diplomacy, capacity building, infrastructure development, trade agreements, and enhanced defense/security partnerships with neighbors like Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan and the Maldives.
While China is still a formidable presence in India's periphery, New Delhi has renewed its regional engagements to pursue an India-led geopolitical order in South Asia.
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