Introduction
As the Lok Sabha's term approaches its conclusion on June 16, 2024, India stands on the precipice of a significant electoral event that encompasses not only the general election but also elections for the Rajya Sabha, state legislative assemblies, Panchayats, and urban local bodies.
The electoral landscape is marked by the dominance of two major alliances—the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition coalition named the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). This article delves into the electoral system, party dynamics, campaign strategies, and the upcoming elections, providing a detailed insight into the political panorama shaping up for the 2024 elections.
Electoral System
The electoral system for the Lok Sabha remains unchanged, with 543 Members of Parliament (MPs) elected through first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies. The 104th constitutional amendment has eliminated the provision for two seats designated for the Anglo-Indian community. The voting eligibility criteria include Indian citizenship, age 18 or above, residency in the polling area, and registration as a voter. Notably, individuals with valid voter identification cards issued by the Election Commission of India or its equivalent are eligible to vote.
Election Schedule
The Election Commission of India (ECI) is expected to release the electoral timetable for the 18th Lok Sabha soon. The current 17th Lok Sabha's term is set to conclude on June 16, 2024, in adherence to Article 83 of the Constitution of India, which mandates Lok Sabha elections every five years.
Parties and Alliances
The political landscape leading up to the 2024 Indian general elections is marked by a growing polarization between the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). Six national parties, including the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress (INC), Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), National People's Party (NPP), and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), are key contenders. All these parties, with the exception of the BSP, are aligned with either the NDA or INDIA.
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
The BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is gearing up for the elections with confidence. During the party's national executive meeting in January 2023, PM Modi outlined the party's strategy, emphasizing outreach to all segments of society, including marginalized communities. The party introduced the slogan "Modi Ki Guarantee" post the 2023 Legislative Assembly elections, signaling a commitment to voters.
Indian National Congress (INC)
The INC, often referred to as the Grand Old Party of India, is campaigning on the principles of preserving Nyay, secularism, federalism, pluralism, democracy, and constitutionalism. As part of the opposition in the 16th and 17th Lok Sabha, the INC is focused on revitalizing its presence and has formed a coalition with 28 regional parties to challenge the BJP in the 2024 national elections.
Surveys and Polls
According to an India TV-CNX survey unveiled on October 3, 2023, 61% of respondents expressed a preference for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while Rahul Gandhi of the INC secured the second position with 21% support for the role of the next Prime Minister of India. This indicates the enduring popularity of Modiji, projecting a probable third term.
State Elections Preview
The electoral campaign dynamics are set in motion as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi traverse five Indian states, rallying support through campaign speeches. Their promises range from cash incentives and farm loan waivers to subsidies and insurance coverage, aiming to sway voters. The recent state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram were a critical test for both the BJP and Congress, shaping up as a precursor to the national elections in 2024.
Public Sentiment and Projections
Despite surveys indicating Modi's enduring popularity, the new opposition alliance, INDIA, struggles to consolidate unity in the ongoing state elections due to internal rivalries. This situation seemingly favors the BJP's electoral prospects. Over 160 million eligible voters are set to participate in the regional polls, constituting about one-sixth of India's total electorate.
Political Battleground - State Elections Overview
Rajasthan: On December 3, the BJP seized control from the Congress in Rajasthan, securing a decisive majority and surpassing the halfway mark in the closely contested Assembly election. The BJP claimed victory in 115 out of the 199 contested seats, establishing itself as the single largest party. Meanwhile, the Congress lagged behind in second place with 69 seats (68 wins and 1 lead).
Chhattisgarh: In Chhattisgarh, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved its largest triumph to date, securing victory in 54 out of the 90 seats in the state, where it has held power for three terms since its establishment in 2000. On the other hand, the Congress trailed significantly, securing wins in 35 seats. Bhupesh Baghel, the current Chief Minister, submitted his resignation late on Sunday, December 3.
Madhya Pradesh: In the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, the BJP secured a dominant victory by claiming more than 163 out of the 230 seats, while the Congress was limited to 66 seats. One seat was secured by the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP).
The BJP's impressive performance not only surprised the Congress but also caught the attention of political observers who had anticipated a more closely contested battle between the two parties. The BJP's success in the state was evident as it outperformed the Congress in all six regions of Madhya Pradesh, while the Congress only managed to win 63 seats.
Telangana: Telangana, the stronghold of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) for the past decade, witnessed a significant shift as the Congress, armed with promises of welfare schemes, triumphed after a nine-and-a-half-year struggle. This victory also thwarted BRS chief K. Chandrashekhar Rao's aspirations of playing a pivotal role in national politics.
The Congress independently secured 64 seats and augmented its total with the support of its ally, the Communist Party of India (CPI), poised to establish governance for the first time since the formation of Telangana State. The BRS, in contrast, secured 39 seats, primarily concentrated in Hyderabad district and the surrounding Rangareddy district. The BJP managed to improve its position, winning 8 seats, a slight increase from its previous tally of 3 seats.
Expectations and Perspectives
Key figures from both the BJP and Congress expressed confidence in securing majorities across all states. BJP's Raman Singh emphasized PM Modi's recent extension of a free food grains program as a potential vote-winner, while Congress's Sachin Pilot underscores the significance of state election outcomes in understanding public sentiments and refining opposition strategies for the upcoming national polls in 2024.
Conclusion
As India prepares for the 2024 General elections, the political landscape is marked by a complex interplay of alliances, electoral strategies, and regional dynamics. The state elections served as a litmus test for the major political parties, setting the stage for the larger battle on the national front. With the electorate closely watching, the results of both state and national elections will shape the future trajectory of India's political landscape.
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