As the sun sets on 2023, Rajasthan braces itself for a political showdown of epic proportions in the upcoming state elections. The political landscape of the state has been nothing short of tumultuous in recent years, with frequent changes in power dynamics and party allegiances. The 2018 elections saw the Congress party wrest control from the BJP, and now, the stage is set for a fierce two-way contest between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's Congress and the resurgent BJP, aiming to regain its lost ground.
Historical Perspective
Rajasthan has a history of oscillating between the BJP and the Congress, with political winds favoring one over the other in each election cycle. Traditionally, the Congress had been the dominant political force in the state, but the BJP, under the leadership of stalwarts like Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and Vasundhara Raje, managed to secure significant victories. The BJP's high point came in 2013 when it secured 163 seats, demonstrating a firm grip on the state.
However, in 2018, the tables turned. The Congress managed to secure 99 seats out of the 200 available, while the BJP won 73. The state witnessed a significant shift in voter sentiment, favoring the Congress due to various factors, including infighting within the BJP. This change in fortune led to the Congress forming the government.
Congress
In an effort to break a three-decade-old trend of Rajasthan voters oscillating between the BJP and the Congress, the Congress party is relying on Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's leadership, welfare schemes, and his personal popularity.
The Congress party recently revealed its list of candidates, naming 61 more individuals for the Rajasthan Assembly elections. Notable inclusions are the party's national spokesperson, Gourav Vallabh, and Manvendra Singh, who made the switch from the BJP a few years ago. Vallabh is set to contest from Udaipur, while Manvendra Singh, the son of former Union minister Jaswant Singh, has been nominated for the Siwana constituency.
The election for the 200-member Rajasthan Assembly is slated for November 25, with the vote count commencing on December 3. In the fourth and fifth candidate lists released by the Congress, the party decided not to provide tickets to seven incumbent MLAs. However, they have fielded 14 incumbent MLAs, including two Independent winners from the 2018 Assembly election and two more who initially won on Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) tickets and later joined the Congress. Additionally, the party has chosen to field two former BJP rebels, Vikas Chaudhary and Surendra Goyal, from the Kishangarh and Jaitaran constituencies, respectively.
Furthermore, more than 30 fresh faces have been introduced. In total, the Congress has announced 156 candidates for the Rajasthan elections, as the party endeavors to challenge the historical trend of incumbent governments being ousted.
Among the 14 incumbent MLAs selected by the Congress are Deependra Singh Shekhawat, Amar Singh Jatav, Indira Meena, Prashant Bairwa, Padmaram Meghwal, Nagraj Meena, Rajendra Singh Bidhuri, Deepchand Kheria, Jogendra Singh Awana, Ameen Khan, Rooparam Meghwal, Saleh Mohammad, Mahadev Singh, and Kanti Prasad Meena.
The Congress has also appointed key figures for various responsibilities in the election campaign. Rajasthan Assembly Speaker C P Joshi has been designated as the Udaipur in-charge, Sachin Pilot will be leading in Ajmer, Harish Chaudhary in Jodhpur, Govind Ram Meghwal in Bikaner, Bhanwar Jitendra Singh in Jaipur, Mohan Prakash in Bharatpur, and Pramod Jain Bhaya in Anta. Additionally, three All India Congress Committee secretaries, namely Qazi Nizamuddin, Virendra Singh Rathore, and Amrita Dhawan, have been designated as coordinators.
Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot has presented seven guarantees as part of the party's election promises, which include the provision of laptops to government college students, English-medium education for all students, and an annual honorarium of Rs 10,000 to the woman heading a family, contingent on the Congress returning to power in Rajasthan.
BJP
On Thursday, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unveiled a roster of 58 candidates for the upcoming Rajasthan Assembly elections. Among the prominent candidates, the saffron party has nominated Ajit Singh Mehta to compete against Congress leader Sachin Pilot in the Tonk constituency, and Mahendra Singh Rathore will contest against Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot in the Sardarpura constituency.
Last month, the BJP had already disclosed its second list of candidates for the forthcoming Rajasthan Assembly elections. Notably, the party fielded BJP national vice-president and former chief minister Vasundhara Raje from the Jhalarpatan constituency. Satish Punia is set to contest from Amber, Rajendra Rathod from Taranagar, and Jyoti Mirdha from Nagaur.
In the second list, the BJP had included 83 candidates. The party decided to field Narpat Singh Rajvi from Chittorgarh after opting not to renominate the five-term MLA from his Vidhyadhar Nagar constituency. Additionally, the party selected Vishwaraj Singh Mewar, a descendant of Maharana Pratap Singh, to run from Nathdwara, a constituency previously won by Congress veteran CP Joshi in the last elections.
The BJP's candidate list also featured individuals like Santosh Bawri from Anupgarh, Santosh Ahlawat from Surajgarh, Sushree Siddhi Kumari from Bikaner East, Anita Bhadel from Ajmer South, Shobha Chauhan from Sojat, and Deepti Maheshwari from Rajsamand.
The first candidate list released by the BJP included notable figures such as Diya Kumari and Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore. Diya Kumari is poised to participate in the polls from the Vidhyadhar Nagar constituency in Jaipur, while Rathore, a former Union minister and retired Army officer, was nominated to compete in Jhotwara, also located in Jaipur district.
The BJP's campaign machinery is in full swing, with a focus on key leaders and potential star campaigners.
The Poll Predictions
According to poll predictions, the Congress, led by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, is expected to secure 59-69 seats, with an estimated 42 percent of the vote share. In contrast, the BJP is anticipated to secure 127-137 seats and hold a projected vote share of 46.7 percent. Rajasthan has a total of 200 Assembly constituencies, making it a significant battleground for both parties.
Conclusion
The 2023 Rajasthan Legislative Assembly election, scheduled for November 25, promises to be a high-stakes battle between the incumbent Congress, led by Ashok Gehlot, and a resurgent BJP. With the state's history of swinging between the two major parties, the outcome remains uncertain. Rajasthan's voters will decide the state's political destiny, and their choice will reverberate beyond the state's borders.
The election results, set to be announced on December 3, will not only shape the immediate future of Rajasthan but also have broader implications for national politics. As both the Congress and the BJP vie for supremacy, the nation watches intently, knowing that Rajasthan often serves as a launchpad for larger political narratives. The 2023 Rajasthan elections are not just a state affair; they are a spectacle that will influence the trajectory of Indian politics.
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