Introduction
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares to attend the 28th session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP28, in Dubai, the world watches closely, eager to witness India's role in shaping global climate policies. This follows India's influential G20 presidency, where it played a key role in advocating for renewable energy commitments.
As COP28 unfolds from November 30 to December 12, 2023, India faces the delicate task of balancing its economic progress, particularly its reliance on coal, with the imperative of sustainable development.
History of COP 28
COP28, officially known as the 28th session of the United Nations Climate Change Conference, is set to convene from November 30 to December 12, 2023, at Expo City in Dubai. These conferences, initiated in 1992 following the inaugural UN climate agreement, are annual gatherings providing a platform for governments worldwide to collaboratively devise policies aimed at mitigating global temperature increases and tackling the challenges posed by climate change.
Controversy surrounds the selection of the UAE as the host nation, primarily due to its historical involvement in fossil fuel production. Sultan Al Jaber, serving as the President of COP28 and leader of ADNOC, has overseen a notable surge in gas and oil production. This occurs amidst growing pressure on fossil fuel industries to curtail output for effective climate change mitigation. Leaked confidential documents have brought to light the UAE's intention to utilize COP28 as an opportunity to propose oil and gas agreements to international governments.
India's Historical Role in Climate Negotiations
Since the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit in 1992, which led to the establishment of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), India has been steadfast in its commitment to ensure that the responsibility for climate action is equitably distributed, especially avoiding undue burdens on developing nations.
A fundamental principle embedded in the UNFCCC is the concept of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). This principle underscores the notion that addressing climate change is a shared responsibility, but the primary responsibility should lie with wealthier and more developed countries. This stems not only from their historical contribution to a significant portion of emissions but also because of their greater resources and capabilities to take effective action.
Indian negotiators played a pivotal role in shaping the Kyoto Protocol during COP3 in 1997, firmly anchored in the CBDR-RC principle. Under this framework, specific emission reduction targets were allocated to a group of affluent and developed nations for the period of 2008-2012. In contrast, developing countries, including India and China, were given the flexibility to undertake "nationally appropriate" climate actions of their choosing.
The Kyoto Protocol encountered inherent instability due to the constraints imposed on wealthy nations, leading to a gradual erosion of the CBDR-RC principle in subsequent COP decisions. From 2008 to 2015, when the Paris Agreement was finalized, India's primary focus during COPs was to mitigate this erosion.
In contrast, the Paris Agreement grants every country, developed or developing, the authority to determine and implement its climate actions. While all nations are expected to create climate action plans called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), there are no mandatory targets. Although a subtle distinction between developed and developing countries has been informally retained, it is marginal.
India’s recent role in Climate Change
Historically, India played a restrained role on the global stage. However, in recent years, there has been a discernible shift, with New Delhi adopting a more assertive stance and actively presenting its narrative. Particularly since the Paris Agreement, India, as one of the world's fastest-growing economies, faces heightened scrutiny for its actions.
During the 2021 Glasgow meeting, India made a last-minute intervention, modifying the final draft outcome by substituting "phase-out" of coal with "phase-down." In the preceding Sharm el-Shaikh meeting, India advocated for a more comprehensive phase-down approach encompassing all fossil fuels, a proposal that continues to be a point of contention among many nations. Additionally, India has been fervently emphasizing the imperative of lifestyle changes to reduce both energy consumption and emissions.
India's G20 Legacy and COP28 Expectations
Subsequent to India's pivotal role during its G20 presidency, where global leaders committed to tripling renewable energy capacity by the decade's end, the G20 summit, while agreeing to reduce reliance on coal power, did not establish substantial climate objectives.
Anticipated as a platform to build on G20 achievements, COP28 is seen by India as an opportunity to further emphasize its commitment to climate action. The government, underlining the significance of climate change during India's G20 presidency, expressed, "Climate change has been a key focus area, and COP-28 will allow us to build upon these successes."
However, the conference may draw attention to the divergence between developed and emerging economies regarding reliance on coal. A recent Reuters report suggests that France, supported by the United States, is poised to propose the discontinuation of private funding for coal-based power plants during COP28. Such a proposition may not align with India's stance, given its reliance on coal as a catalyst for rapid economic progress.
With 73% of its electricity currently sourced from coal, India's rapid economic progress is intricately tied to coal dependence. Negotiating this disparity between developed and emerging economies further complexes India's stance at the conference.
COP28 as a Diplomatic Platform
Prime Minister Modi's participation in COP28 underscores India's global significance in climate negotiations. The conference provides a crucial platform for India to showcase its achievements, affirm its commitment to climate action, and address the practical challenges faced by developing nations in transitioning away from fossil fuels.
The delicate balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability will be a central theme in India's diplomatic endeavors.
India's Climate Commitments and Initiatives
New Delhi has presented two Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) thus far. The initial NDC outlined three specific commitments: India aimed to reduce its emissions intensity, measured as emissions per unit of GDP, by 33 to 35% from 2005 levels by 2030; ensure that at least 40% of its installed electricity capacity in 2030 comes from non-fossil fuel sources; and generate a minimum of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of additional carbon sink through tree and forest cover.
In the updated NDC, disclosed last year, India heightened the targets for the first two commitments, having surpassed the previous goals by eight years. The emission intensity reduction target was increased to 4%, and the non-fossil fuel-based electricity target was raised to 50%. The updated NDC also outlined several other measures without specific numerical targets.
India has launched numerous global initiatives addressing climate change, gaining support from various countries. While not formally part of COP discussions, these initiatives significantly contribute. For instance, the International Solar Alliance (ISA), established during the 2015 Paris meeting, has evolved into a fully-fledged UN-affiliated multilateral agency, aiming to promote global solar energy installation.
The Coalition of Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) follows a similar model, aspiring to serve as the global knowledge hub for building more resilient infrastructure. The CDRI has particularly attracted interest from developing nations, especially small island states facing heightened climate risks. India collaborated with the International Energy Agency (IEA) to analyze its proposals, revealing that simple lifestyle changes could potentially reduce annual global carbon dioxide emissions by around 2 billion tonnes by 2030.
Moreover, nearly 60% of these savings could be directly mandated by governments. The International Energy Agency's analysis has bolstered the acceptance of India's LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment) Mission by other countries, as evidenced in the final outcome of the G20 summit held in New Delhi earlier this year.
Global Initiatives and Alliances
India's engagement with international organizations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the formation of groups like the BASIC group and the Like Minded Developing Countries (LMDC) bloc showcase its proactive approach in global climate diplomacy. The LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment) Mission, emphasizing lifestyle changes for emission reduction, gained acceptance at the G20 summit, reflecting India's influence and commitment on the global climate discourse.
Conclusion
As India approaches COP28, it stands at a critical juncture, balancing economic progress with environmental sustainability. Prime Minister Modi's participation underscores India's pivotal role in global climate negotiations.
The outcomes of COP28 will shape India's future climate policies and influence international efforts to combat climate change. As the world looks towards Dubai, India's diplomatic finesse and commitment to sustainable development will be closely observed on this significant anniversary of COP28.
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