Introduction
On June 15-16, 2020, the Galwan Valley in Ladakh witnessed the deadliest clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers in 45 years. This violent confrontation resulted in the loss of 20 Indian soldiers, including a Colonel, and marked a significant turning point in India-China relations. Four years on, despite numerous military and diplomatic efforts, the border standoff remains unresolved, reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the region.
The flags of India and China. Credit: iStock Photo
Background and Prelude to the Clash
The roots of the current conflict can be traced back to April 2020, when tensions began to escalate at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. China initiated a large-scale mobilization of troops along the border, violating existing protocols between the two countries. Intelligence reports suggested that China's objective was to penetrate the Indian side of the LAC and seize control of key patrolling points on the Kailash Range. This aggressive maneuver set the stage for the violent confrontation that would unfold on the night of June 15, 2020.
The Galwan Clash
On that fateful night, Indian and Chinese soldiers engaged in a fierce physical confrontation in the Galwan Valley. The clash resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers, including Colonel Bikumalia Santosh Babu. While China initially remained silent about its casualties, it later reported losing four soldiers. However, Indian sources suggested the number was much higher, estimating at least 43 Chinese casualties. This incident marked the first time since 1975 that lives were lost on the LAC, underscoring the severity of the conflict and its potential to destabilize the region.
Immediate Reactions and Diplomatic Efforts
In the wake of the clash, both nations moved swiftly to address the situation through diplomatic channels. On June 17, 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the country, emphasizing the country's desire for peace while asserting India's readiness to respond firmly to any provocation. This balanced approach aimed to de-escalate tensions while maintaining a strong stance on national security.
Concurrently, military leaders from both sides engaged in talks. On June 16, a meeting between the Corps Commanders of the Indian and Chinese armies resulted in a "mutual consensus to disengage." However, this agreement fell short of producing a concrete plan for troop withdrawal, highlighting the complexity of the situation and the deep-rooted mistrust between the two nations.
In September 2020, diplomatic efforts intensified when External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Moscow during the Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral meeting. This high-level engagement led to the formulation of a five-point plan aimed at easing border tensions and implementing new confidence-building measures. Despite these diplomatic initiatives, progress remained slow, and subsequent engagements primarily resulted in the creation of buffer zones between the two armies, rather than a comprehensive resolution.
Continuing Tensions and Limited Progress
The aftermath of the Galwan clash saw a period of heightened tensions and limited progress in resolving the border dispute. In February 2021, China publicly acknowledged for the first time that five of its military officers and soldiers had been killed in the clash, a claim that India disputed. This disclosure, coming months after the incident, highlighted the sensitive nature of the conflict and the reluctance of both sides to fully disclose information.
How India is countering China's provocation on LAC, borders (Firstpost)
During this period, India took several strategic steps to counter China's actions. These measures included banning Chinese apps, imposing stricter regulations on Chinese investments, and promoting self-reliance under the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' initiative. These actions were designed to reduce India's economic dependence on China and signal its resolve in the face of aggression.
India consistently maintained that normal relations with China could only resume once the status quo ante was restored, with troops returning to their pre-May 2020 positions. However, China's stance remained uncompromising, with its foreign ministry asserting that the Galwan River Valley lay on their side of the LAC, thereby claiming patrolling rights in the area. This fundamental disagreement over the demarcation of the border continued to be a significant obstacle in resolving the conflict.
Disengagement Efforts and Remaining Issues
The first significant breakthrough in talks came in February 2021 when Chinese and Indian troops began a "synchronized and organized disengagement" from the southern and northern shores of Pangong Tso. This agreement, reached during the ninth round of military talks in January 2021, represented a positive step towards de-escalation. Following this disengagement, then Army Chief M.M. Naravane noted in May 2021 that no transgressions or violations of the disengagement had occurred, suggesting a gradual rebuilding of trust.
However, several friction points remained unresolved, including PP15 in Hot Springs, PP17A in Gogra Post, PP14 in Galwan Valley, and the Depsang Plains in the far north. The process of phased disengagement, initially discussed in July 2020, progressed slowly, indicating the complex nature of the border dispute and the cautious approach adopted by both sides.
Impact on Bilateral Relations
Four years after the Galwan clash, bilateral ties between India and China remain strained. The impact of the border standoff has been evident in high-level diplomatic engagements, or the lack thereof. In September 2023, when India hosted the G-20 Summit for the first time, Chinese President Xi Jinping's absence was notable, with Premier Li Qiang attending in his stead. Since 2020, no bilateral talks have taken place between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi, with their last interaction occurring at the G20 Summit in Bali, Indonesia, in 2022.
In a move that could potentially thaw relations, China appointed Xu Feihong as its envoy to India in May 2023, after an 18-month gap. Xu expressed willingness to improve and develop China-India relations, stating, "I will make my due contribution to the improvement and development of China-India relations." However, the effectiveness of this diplomatic outreach remains to be seen in the context of ongoing border tensions.
Economic and Strategic Ramifications
The Galwan clash and the subsequent standoff have had significant economic and strategic implications for both nations. India's measures to reduce economic dependence on China have led to a recalibration of trade relationships and investment patterns. The ban on numerous Chinese apps, tightened regulations on Chinese investments, and the promotion of self-reliance under the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' initiative have all contributed to a shifting economic landscape.
On the strategic front, India has undertaken substantial efforts to strengthen its military infrastructure along the LAC. This has been complemented by enhanced defense cooperation with countries like the United States, Japan, and Australia. The Quad alliance, comprising these four nations, has gained prominence as a strategic counterbalance to China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Development of Border Infrastructure
In response to China's infrastructure buildup along the LAC, India has initiated an ambitious program to develop its border regions. The Border Roads Organisation (BRO) has executed 90 infrastructure projects across 11 states and Union Territories, with a combined cost of Rs 2,941 crore. These projects are strategically distributed, with 36 in Arunachal Pradesh, 26 in Ladakh, and 11 in Jammu and Kashmir.
This initiative follows the completion of 103 projects worth around Rs 2,900 crore in 2022 and 102 projects costing over Rs 2,200 crore in 2021, demonstrating India's sustained commitment to enhancing its border infrastructure. The projects range from the pivotal Nechiphu tunnel on the road to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh to revamped airfields, helipads, roads, and bridges, marking a significant stride in bolstering India's defensive capabilities and improving connectivity in border regions.
Arunachal Pradesh Frontier Highway
A key component of India's border infrastructure development is the Arunachal Pradesh Frontier Highway (AFH), officially known as NH-913. This extensive project, covering 1,748 kilometres and projected to cost ₹27,000 crores, is designed to run approximately 20 kilometres from the LAC and the McMahon Line. Upon completion, it will become one of India's major strategic corridors, traversing highly contested areas between India and China in Arunachal Pradesh.
The AFH serves dual purposes: enhancing connectivity in the most remote parts of Arunachal Pradesh and fortifying India's defence infrastructure in this sensitive border region. Its strategic significance is underscored by the fact that it passes through territories that China claims as South Tibet, adding another layer of complexity to the already tense border situation.
India claims the length of LAC as 3,488 kms whereas China claims only 2,000 kms. (File image)| India Today
Sela Tunnel
Another significant infrastructure development is the Sela Tunnel, inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this year. Located at an altitude of 13,000 feet, it is the world's longest bi-lane tunnel, connecting Guwahati in Assam to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh. The tunnel bypasses the snow-bound Sela Pass, drastically reducing travel time and enhancing the rapid movement of troops, weapons, and supplies along the sensitive India-China border.
The inauguration of the Sela Tunnel prompted a rhetorical claim from China regarding Arunachal Pradesh's status, highlighting the persistent tensions surrounding border infrastructure development in the region. Despite these tensions, the Indian Army's Eastern Command maintains that there have been no Chinese incursions into Arunachal Pradesh since 1959.
Future Prospects and Conclusion
As the border standoff enters its fifth year, the future of India-China relations remains uncertain. Both countries have significant strategic and economic interests at stake, necessitating a delicate balance between asserting territorial claims and maintaining regional stability. While diplomatic and military talks continue, the lack of substantial progress in resolving the core border issues indicates that tensions are likely to persist in the near future.
The focus remains on finding a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy, ensuring stability in the region. However, both nations continue to strengthen their positions along the border, suggesting a long-term preparedness for potential conflicts. The development of border infrastructure, strategic partnerships, and economic measures all point to a new era in India-China relations, characterized by cautious engagement and strategic hedging.
In conclusion, the Galwan clash of 2020 marked a significant turning point in India-China relations, the repercussions of which continue to shape the geopolitical landscape of the region. As both nations navigate this complex and sensitive issue, the international community watches closely, hoping for a peaceful resolution that ensures long-term stability in one of the world's most strategically important regions. The coming years will be crucial in determining whether diplomacy can prevail over discord, paving the way for a new chapter in India-China relations.
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