Amidst the fervor surrounding India's Lok Sabha elections, China's keen interest in the unfolding political landscape has become increasingly apparent. From the corridors of think tanks to the virtual realms of state-owned media and social platforms, discussions abound, signaling Beijing's close scrutiny of New Delhi's electoral dynamics. This heightened attention finds its roots in the significant deterioration of bilateral relations over the past four years, prompting China to closely assess the potential outcomes of India's democratic exercise.
China and India's disputed territories | VOA News
At the heart of this scrutiny lies the contrasting approaches of the Modi administration and Beijing regarding the longstanding border dispute between the two nations. While India has placed a strong emphasis on resolving the contentious issue, China has adopted a more subdued stance, often downplaying its significance in bilateral relations. This divergence in priorities has fueled apprehensions in China about the future trajectory of relations, particularly under a potentially re-elected Modi government.
Adding a layer of significance to this dynamic is the recent appointment of Xu Feihong as China's Ambassador to India, following a vacancy of 1.5 years. Timed alongside India's electoral process, Xu's appointment is being highlighted in Chinese media as a pivotal opportunity for Beijing to recalibrate and strengthen its ties with New Delhi.
The Arrival of Xu Feihong in New Delhi
Following an unprecedented delay spanning 18 months, the newly-appointed Chinese Ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, finally arrived in Delhi on Friday, signaling a potential thaw in the frozen relations between the two nations. Xu, who expressed eagerness to bolster bilateral ties upon his arrival, was appointed to his new role by President Xi Jinping on Tuesday, May 7. His arrival comes amidst a backdrop of strained relations between India and China, with both nations grappling with longstanding border disputes and escalating tensions in recent years.
Upon arriving in Delhi, Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong took to the social media platform X to express his gratitude. In a post, he thanked officials from both the Ministry of External Affairs and the Chinese Embassy in Delhi for their warm welcome.
"Arrived at dawn in Delhi today. Thanks for the warm greetings from MEA official, Dean of Diplomatic Corps H.E. Ambassador Alem Tsehaye Woldemariam of Eritrea to India, and my colleagues from the Embassy. Look forward to working hard with all for China-India relations," he said.
Xu Feihong, aged 60, has assumed the role of Chinese Ambassador to India, succeeding veteran diplomat Sun Weidong, who concluded his tenure in October 2022. Prior to his appointment in India, Sun served as China's envoy to Pakistan and currently holds the position of Vice Foreign Minister overseeing China's South Asia policy. Xu brings a wealth of diplomatic experience to his new role, having previously served as China’s ambassador to Afghanistan from March 2011 to August 2013, as well as Beijing’s top envoy in Romania.
"China is ready to work with India to accommodate each other's concerns and find a mutually acceptable solution to specific issues through dialogue at an early date", Xu said in interaction with news agency PTI and China's state-run CGTN-TV, before leaving from Beijing to take up his posting in New Delhi.
“The Chinese side always believes that China-India ties should not be defined by any single issue or area; the boundary question is not the entirety of the relationship. Speaking at the Indian Council of World Affairs in September 2014, President Xi Jinping said that we must not focus our attention only on differences and forget about our friendship and cooperation, still less should we allow the differences to stand in the way of our development and interfere with the overall growth of bilateral relations," PTI quoted Xu as saying.
Ups and Downs in Indo-China Relations
Earlier this week, the India-based research group Global Trade Research Initiative released data indicating a significant shift in India's trade dynamics. For the fiscal year of 2024, China narrowly surpassed the United States to become India’s largest trading partner, marking a reversal from the trend observed over the past two years. Notably, China held the title of India’s largest trading partner for over a decade, from 2008 to 2021.
However, despite this economic milestone, some Indian analysts express concerns about the state of bilateral relations between India and China. Tensions remain palpable, particularly in the aftermath of a deadly border clash in 2020 that resulted in Beijing gaining control of disputed territory. These analysts view the recent trade data within the broader context of strained diplomatic ties, raising questions about the future trajectory of Sino-Indian relations.
"There is a desire for improved relations on both sides," said Lt. Gen. SL Narasimhan, a New Delhi-based China expert and former Beijing-based military attaché. "But at the same time, not much should be read into the appointment of a new envoy. There is a serious trust issue between two countries after the Galwan Valley conflict in June 2020."
"But for India, peace and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) are central to this relationship," said Narasimhan.
Some, like Associate Professor of China Studies Sriparna Pathak, say that leaving the position open for so long was a sign of disrespect from Beijing.
"Considering the state of India-China relations ... China not sending the ambassador to India [for such a long period of time] clearly indicates that it ... looks down upon India, and that has been made obvious an ample number of times," said Pathak, referring to Beijing's rejection of New Delhi's request to pull troops back to positions that preceded the deadly 2020 border clashes in Galwan, a disputed region of the Himalaya's.
Pathak, of New Delhi's Jindal Global University, also said New Delhi took offense to Beijing's decision to name People's Liberation Army Commander Qi Fabao a torchbearer in the 2022 Winter Olympics torch relay. Qi was widely known for his involvement in a 2020 border clash that killed two Chinese troops and at least 20 Indians.
In 2022, tensions between the Indian and Chinese militaries persisted, with at least two additional clashes reported, albeit without any casualties. The ongoing standoff has resulted in tens of thousands of troops remaining deployed along the disputed border. Both Beijing and New Delhi have engaged in extensive dialogue to resolve the impasse, conducting 21 rounds of military talks and 29 rounds of diplomatic negotiations.
Following a round of talks in March, India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar told India’s NDTV that his "first duty to Indians is to secure the border. I can never compromise on that."
He also went on to say that a normal relationship cannot be envisaged between India and China until China moves back to its pre-2020 position on its borders.
In a May 7 interview granted to Indian and Chinese media, Ambassador Xu said relations between the two countries should not be defined by any single issue or area.
"The overall border situation is stable and under control, and border areas are peaceful and tranquil," he said. "China is ready to work with India to accommodate each other's concerns, find a mutually acceptable solution to specific issues through dialogue at an early date, and turn the page as soon as possible."
The prolonged vacancy in the role of China’s top diplomat to India, lasting from 1962 to 1976, underscores historical tensions rooted in border conflicts. This period coincided with the aftermath of the 1962 Sino-Indian War, a pivotal event fueled by border skirmishes and the 1959 Tibetan uprising against communist rule in China. The flight of the Dalai Lama to India amid the Tibetan unrest further strained relations between New Delhi and Beijing, given India's continued refuge for the Tibetan spiritual leader. The 1962 conflict witnessed Chinese troops seizing control of disputed territory in the Aksai Chin region, resulting in significant casualties on both sides.
China’s Misplaced Narratives
State-owned English news portals like the Global Times have taken a hawkish stance on India and its electoral process. Crafting a narrative that implicates the Modi-led BJP in stoking anti-China sentiments to bolster its electoral prospects, the Chinese media outlet has published numerous editorial and opinion pieces. These articles attribute the strained India-China relations to government rhetoric aimed at garnering votes. Criticizing Indian media for purportedly aligning their narrative with the Modi administration's China policy, the Global Times accuses them of fostering an unfavorable perception of China. This narrative is further amplified through Chinese search engines and various online platforms.
The microblogging platform Weibo is ablaze with discussions surrounding India's border tensions with China, with many users speculating on Prime Minister Modi's motives. Amidst this discourse, a prevalent belief emerges that Modi is leveraging the border issue to solidify internal unity and rally international backing. There's a perception that by taking a tough stance against China, Modi seeks to enhance his image and garner support during the election season. This strategy includes emphasizing contentious topics like India's involvement in the South China Sea dispute.
Amid the prevailing narratives in Chinese media, there are contrasting voices from scholars and analysts offering more nuanced perspectives. Notably, Zhang Jiadong from Fudan University has emerged as a prominent figure in this discourse. In his analyses, Zhang acknowledges India's significant strides in economic development and social governance, diverging from the mainstream portrayal. He also highlights India's growing recognition of its status as a major global power.
Liu Zongyi, Director of the Center for South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, offers insights into the evolving political landscape in India. He suggests that Hindu nationalism is gaining traction among the Indian populace, influencing voting patterns significantly. Zongyi contrasts this shift with the previous Congress governments, which he believes did not prioritize Hindu nationalism and maintained friendlier relations with China. Similarly, Lin Minwang from the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University underscores the impact of religious infusion in India's political arena on Modi's potential re-election.
Another commentary underscores the perception of Prime Minister Modi among young Hindu voters, depicting him as a revered figure capable of steering India toward prosperity and global prominence, surpassing even China and the United States. It delves into the deep-seated apprehension of a perceived China threat within India, which has hindered cooperation and engagement with Beijing. Long Xingchun from the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Renmin University has previously articulated how this blend of Sinophobia and Indian nationalism poses challenges to India-China relations.
Ning Shengnan of the China Institute of International Relations echoed sentiments regarding Prime Minister Modi's emphasis on Hindu nationalism throughout his tenure. However, she also commended Modi as a robust leader, attributing his governance style to transforming India's once-perceived 'weak' image. Shengnan emphasized the importance of a peaceful external environment for India's post-election focus on development, underscoring the necessity of avoiding conflict with China.
China India’s Priority
After the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, China is anticipated to remain a significant focus for India. Despite differing views within Chinese scholarly circles, a prevailing sense of optimism prevails, accompanied by numerous proposals aimed at shaping the future of India-China relations. However, there exists a notable misperception regarding India in China, with a broader understanding of the country often distorted. While the border dispute has undoubtedly influenced certain Indian perceptions, its impact on the election remains uncertain. Whether India's approach toward China will maintain its hardline stance or pave the way for reconciliation remains uncertain, casting a shadow of ambiguity over the future trajectory of bilateral relations.
It's crucial for China to recalibrate its understanding of India, recognizing that India's expressions of concern aren't merely political posturing but genuine apprehensions that demand Beijing's acknowledgment and resolution. Until China respects India's sovereignty, meaningful progress in bilateral relations may prove elusive.
Microsoft Earlier Warned that China is Planning to Disrupt Indian Elections Using AI
In a recent development, Microsoft has sounded the alarm on China's alleged plans to disrupt forthcoming elections in India, the United States, and South Korea by leveraging artificial intelligence-generated content. This alert comes in the wake of China's purported trial run during Taiwan's presidential election, where AI tactics were reportedly employed to sway the outcome. Notably, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates engaged in discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi just last month, focusing on the potential applications of AI across various sectors such as social causes, women-led development, and advancements in health and agriculture. With national elections slated in at least 64 countries worldwide, including those in the European Union, encompassing nearly half of the global population, concerns are escalating over potential interference.
Microsoft's threat intelligence team has underscored the involvement of Chinese state-backed cyber groups, allegedly supported by North Korea, in targeting multiple elections scheduled for 2024. Their analysis suggests that China could utilize AI-generated content disseminated through social media platforms to influence public sentiment in favor of their strategic interests during these critical electoral processes.
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