After Quad, India Poised to Join ‘Squad’ Alliance on South China Sea

India has been a longstanding member of the Quad—a strategic alliance between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States—dedicated to promoting an "open, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific that is inclusive and resilient."

Now, the Philippines is keen for India to become part of the "Squad," an informal offshoot group in the South China Sea that includes the Philippines, Australia, Japan, and the United States.

Philippines’ Armed Forces Chief General Romeo Brawner said India could be part of the alliance in the South China Sea amid tensions with Beijing. (Reuters)

Philippine Armed Forces Chief of Staff, General Romeo S. Brawner, expressed his country's enthusiasm for India and South Korea to join this informal alliance.

“I will be raising the topic of India joining the Squad during a meeting with Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan in the afternoon today,” General Brawner referred to China as the common enemy while speaking on the sidelines of the Raisina Dialogue.

“The three artificial islands created by China give it effective control over the South China Sea. They have built a 2.7-km runway, with air defence and other missile systems, on Mischief Reef…Moving forward, it is our belief that they will take full control of the South China Sea,” General Brawner added.

But what exactly is ‘Squad’? What do we know about it, and what do experts have to say?

Let's examine this more closely:

What is the 'Squad'?

According to Bloomberg, officials at the US Pentagon coined the nickname for the grouping.

Some experts, as reported by the Global Times, say, “the Squad essentially adds an ‘S’ for security to the Indo-Pacific architecture of minilateral cooperation.”

The Interpreter reported that the formation of the grouping comes against the backdrop of escalating tensions between China and the Philippines over territorial disputes.

According to the Observer Research Foundation, the first meeting of the ‘Squad’ took place on June 3, 2023.

The Global Times stated that the ‘Squad’ conducted its first joint maritime exercise in April 2024.

As per The Economic Times, the informal bloc has been carrying out naval exercises in the South China Sea for over a year.

China has unlawfully claimed nearly the entire South China Sea, violating international law.

This claim persists despite the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which deemed Beijing’s assertions over the region baseless.

China’s activities in the South China Sea have triggered hundreds of diplomatic protests from the Philippines.

Annually, approximately $3 trillion worth of sea-borne trade passes through the South China Sea.

The primary objective of the ‘Squad’ is to counter and restrain Beijing’s aggressive expansion in the region.

On Wednesday, General Brawner criticized China’s “illegal, coercive, and disruptive Grey Zone” tactics, which include constructing and militarizing three artificial islands.

According to The Times of India, China’s neighbors have accused it of disregarding international norms, both in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

Beijing not only possesses the world’s largest navy, with 370 warships and submarines, but has also permanently deployed seven to eight ships in the Indian Ocean Region.

Why Is India's Role Significant?

“We find commonality with India because we have a common enemy. And I’m not afraid to say that China is our common enemy. So, it’s important that we collaborate together, maybe exchange intelligence," Brawner told reporters after the Raisina Dialogue that his country already has a partnership with the Indian military.

The Chief of the Philippine Army also mentioned the possibility of India joining the Squad during a meeting with India’s Chief of Defence Staff, Anil Chauhan. A senior Indian defense official confirmed to Reuters that the meeting took place but did not clarify whether this topic was discussed.

The Philippines has faced a series of escalating confrontations with China over disputed waters in the South China Sea. Manila has accused Chinese coast guard ships and fishing vessels of disabling their location-transmitting devices to evade detection and surveillance.

Meanwhile, Brawner mentioned that the Philippines is considering acquiring additional missile systems from India. " We already have the BrahMos system and we are waiting for the delivery of more components. So far we are very happy and this is creating a very good deterrent effect in the South China scene," he stated this in an interview with news agency PTI.

What are experts saying?

The ORF article contended that the creation of the 'Squad' should be viewed in light of institutional failures like ASEAN, the absence of condemnation for China's actions, and the pursuit of a new security arrangement to enhance maritime security.

“Firstly, it would be inaccurate to view the emergence of the Squad as an outcome at the cost of the already existing Quad,” the article mentioned.

“The synergy among the Quad countries is directed towards fostering a secure and stable Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, the Squad should be seen in the context of the specific contests that have characterized the SCS region, and even more specifically the West Philippine Sea.”

The ORF article stated that the 'Squad' has sparked a crucial debate on minilateralism in the Indo-Pacific.

“The proliferation of such groupings has come as a boon to several players involved in the broader geopolitics ensuing in the region. Minilateral groupings are seen as helpful as they aid in the making of maritime security architectures based on the strategic and security compulsions of the players involved in the region providing them with more space and agency to manoeuvre the complex challenges at sea. This is a natural outcome of the very nature in which geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific has evolved, involving maritime spaces with varied strategic environments, and countries with wide-ranging interests,” the piece stated.

An article in The Interpreter argued that the 'Squad' is a natural outcome of the U.S.'s minilateral initiatives, including Australia–UK–US (AUKUS) and Japan–Philippines–US (JAPHUS).

“As the “Squad” develops, it needs to institutionalise its promising partnership through regular joint patrols in the South China Sea and across Western Pacific, expanded intelligence-sharing and maritime security cooperation, and collective efforts to accelerate the Philippines’ military modernisation,” the piece argued.

“In the meantime, the “Squad” sends a reminder to China that the Philippines is not alone – and that Beijing needs to reconsider its aggressive stance, lest it crystalise a de facto ‘Asian NATO,’” The article concluded.

Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs at the Institute for Security and Development Policy, told SCMP last year that he wouldn’t be surprised if ‘Squad’ evolves into a more established grouping.

“Squad countries are strong maritime nations, having keen commercial interests in the conflicting South China Sea to the East China Sea. Having official backing among the navies of these four countries makes sense, and hence eventually the Squad might emerge as a more institutionalised or formalised grouping,” Panda said.

Panda stated that the two blocs would create a "versatile power distribution" in which "powers and responsibilities are shared."

“There is an opportunity and chance for the Squad and the Quad to coexist,” Panda said.

Yoichiro Sato, a professor of Asia-Pacific Studies at Japan’s Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, stated additionally, “Manila will remain focused on borrowing the strength of the other three countries in deterring China’s challenges” in the South China Sea.

“This includes security help to the Philippines in terms of both hardware and human resource training,” Sato said.

“The two overlapping four-party arrangements allow more cohesion within each group, allowing both India and the Philippines to work within their comfort levels,” Sato added.

China, naturally, has a completely different perspective.

An article in the state-run Global Times criticized the ‘Squad,’ describing it as “a patched-together Frankenstein, a loose bloc of interests that does little more than fuel instability in the South China Sea.”

“Its so-called unity is nothing but a facade, built on an opportunistic grouping that only serves to further stir an already tense situation. Perhaps what the “S” truly stands for is “sabotage” and “strife.” Every joint US-Japan-Australia-Philippines military exercise, while officially claiming to promote “regional peace and stability,” only further destabilises the South China Sea situation,” the piece argued.

“Peace and stability in the South China Sea depend on dialogue and cooperation, not on creating one “monster” after another to divert attention from provocative actions. Relying on external forces for support to incite tensions will only complicate the situation and push peace further away,” the piece concluded.

(This Article was originally published by First Post)